On June 11, 2024, a Chinese man was arrested by Taiwanese authorities on the grounds that he may be a Chinese spy probing the Island’s defence. In response, the spokesperson for the P.R.C’s Taiwan office, Chen Binhua, said “There is no need for the Democratic Progressive Party authorities to see soldiers hiding behind every tree and bush, carrying out political manipulation while pretending to act earnestly.”

However, despite the recent tit-for-tat, a war between the P.R.C. and R.O.C. is unlikely.

After Japan lost in World War II, China regained Taiwan when the K.M.T. was in power. However, in 1949, the communist party took over mainland China, while the nationalists fled to what is now Taiwan.

Beijing insists that Taiwan is bound by the 1992 Consensus, an agreement which recognizes that there is only “one China.” However, while the P.R.C. perceives itself to be the “one China,” the R.O.C. also perceives itself to be the “one China.”

Consequently, the Chinese government has formulated a “One Country, Two Systems” approach to “persuade” Taiwan to reunify. As per the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan is a part of China but can continue to practice its capitalist system. However, Taiwan rejects the idea of “one country two systems,” concerned that it could suffer the same fate as Hong Kong.

Additionally, Taiwan’s foreign minister said that Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine has reignited fears that China could invade Taiwan. The Western reaction toward Russia’s invasion indicates to China what to expect if it follows suit. China could also rely on support from the Global South since they don’t agree with the West’s narrative of “international law.” However, realistically, is against China’s interests to be treated as a pariah state like Russia and further strengthen the “anti-China bloc.”

Perhaps the biggest risk to this conflict is the involvement of other countries. Under the 1978 U.S.-China normalization agreement, the U.S. recognizes the P.R.C. as the sole legal government but insists that it will also maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan. Hence, the policy of “strategic ambiguity” has characterized Washington’s approach, in which the U.S. will not publicly declare what it would do if China invaded Taiwan.

However, since Nancy Pelosi decided to visit Taiwan, tensions with China have escalated. Furthermore, according to a report by The Washington Post, should China invade Taiwan, the U.S. plans to turn the Taiwan Strait into a “hellscape,” which would entail sending unmanned submarines, aerial forces, and surface ships to overwhelm China to give time for American, Taiwanese, and partner forces to ready their defences. However, from a legal standpoint, the U.S. has no defence treaty with Taiwan and American officials. Going to war would damage America’s economy since Taiwan is a crucial source of semiconductors.

Aside from the U.S., Shino Abe has said that a conflict in Taiwan is a security threat to Japan. However, if Taiwan unilaterally declares independence, Tokyo would be unlikely to get involved. Moreover, China is an important trading partner to Japan, therefore Tokyo will not risk damaging its relations with Beijing.

Despite a right-wing government in power, South Korea hesitates to get involved in a Taiwan conflict. This was illustrated when President Yoon cancelled a scheduled meeting with Nancy Pelosi when she visited Taiwan, citing “summer vacation” plans. Additionally, Seoul needs Beijing’s assistance to counter North Korea, which is a greater security priority.

Likewise, while the Modi government has been publicly more supportive of Taiwan than prior governments, such as when Modi expressed a desire for greater cooperation after Taiwan’s president congratulated Modi’s victory, India is unlikely to help militarily. The most India could do is give diplomatic support to members of the QUAD and verbally condemn China.

Additionally, while Europe’s China policy has become hawkish in recent years, the Europeans are hesitant to aid Taiwan since it would further strengthen the Russia-China relationship. Hence, the most they would do is give Taiwan political/diplomatic support and some member-states, such as France, insist that Europe shouldn’t be dragged into a conflict over Taiwan.

It is against the interests of China and the other players to intentionally start a war. However, as demonstrated by Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, the danger lies when nationalistic and emotional impulses overtake realist considerations.