On August 18, 2024, Paetongtarn Shinawatra became Thailand’s 31^st prime minister, making her the youngest prime minister in the country’s history. She is also Thailand’s second female prime minister, after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra. Thailand appointed a new prime minister after the previous one, Sretta Thavsin, was dismissed over an ‘ethics violation.’ However, despite the new face, the new prime minister will be limited to enacting meaningful change due to the strong grip the military and monarchy have in politics.

On paper, Thailand is a constitutional monarchy in which the king has limited power, like Great Britain. However, in practice, the king exerts enormous political power, as illustrated by the country’s strict lèse-majesté law. This law, known as 112, was first enacted in 1908 and makes it illegal to “defame, insult or threaten members of the royal family.” If violated, the punishment is 3 to 15 years in prison, and any Thai citizen can accuse another Thai citizen of violating this law. However, very often, the lèse-majesté law has been used to silence political opponents, and its usage has only increased ever since King Vajiralongkorn ascended the throne in 2016. Even though Vajiralongkorn’s father, Bhumibol, is more revered by the Thai public, he also utilized that law to consolidate his power.

In general, older Thais and the conservative parties support the monarchy and continue to view the king as a “God,” as they are often taught. The monarchy also continues to receive immense support from the military, which portrays itself as the ‘guardian of the monarchy’ to the Thai public. Furthermore, supporters of the lèse-majesté law argue that the demands to reform the law could end with the monarchy’s collapse. By contrast, the younger generation has been more willing to criticize the monarchy and demand change, which was illustrated during the 2020-2021 protests in Thailand.

The protestors — many of them students — made several demands. Their central demand was the resignation of the then prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who took power via a military coup in 2014. Additionally, the protestors insisted that the king govern as a constitutional monarch, like in the UK. Unfortunately, these protests were crushed as many of the organizers fled the country or were charged with violating the lèse-majesté law.

Later, during the 2023 general elections, the Move Forward Party — a political party that campaigned to loosen the restrictions of the lèse-majesté — won the most seats. However, despite forming a coalition with six other like-minded parties and the Pheu Thai, Pita Limjaroenrat did not end up as the prime minister. This was largely due to the opposition from the lawmakers aligned with the monarchy and military, who viewed the Move Forward Party as ‘anti-monarchical.’ As a result, the Pheu Thai Party was able to form a government and make Sretta Thavsin the Prime Minister instead.

Despite Sretta’s prior criticism of Prayuth’s military coup and the demands to check the power of the billionaires over Thai politics, his ability to substantially change anything was limited. This was largely due to the powerful faction that was aligned with the monarchy and backed by the military. Thus, Sretta’s recent conviction of violating the ethics law is largely seen as a political move by the military-royalist faction to reassert control over Thai politics. Moreover, aside from Sretta’s conviction, the constitutional court ordered the Move Forward Party to be dissolved because the party had ‘undermined the monarchy.’ It is important to note that the party’s leaders have not advocated for abolishing the monarchy, but rather reforming it to make it more democratic. Additionally, the party leaders are banned from participating in Thai politics for 10 years.

Hence, amid the political crises, Paetongtarn Shinawatra has become the new prime minister. On the surface, it seems that she will push for some reforms. Her father — former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra — was indicted for defaming the monarchy and also ousted from power (like Sretta) by the military-royalist faction. However, while Paetongtarn supports socially liberal policies, like the equal marriage act that granted the LGBTQ+ community marriage rights, her ability to make meaningful change is limited because of the powerful control the military and monarchy have.

So long as the dominance of the monarchy and military persist, Thailand will remain in a state of political paralysis.