From July 25 to August 3, 2024, United States (U.S.) Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited several countries in the Indo-Pacific, such as Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines. Officially, the agenda for Blinken’s trip was to participate in the Association of Southeast Nations (A.S.E.A.N.) foreign ministers meeting and pay respects to the death of Vietnam’s leader. However, an issue that has remained in the backdrop of America’s Indo-Pacific policy is the effect of the ongoing war in Gaza.

On the one hand, Israel’s war in Gaza has only reinforced the affinity of Muslim majority countries in the region to the Palestinian cause. Countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Maldives do not recognize Israel. In December 2023, Malaysia banned Israeli flagged ships from entering into the country, on the grounds that Israel was violating international law. In fact, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has described Hamas as “freedom fighters.” In June 2024, during a speech at a regional security event, the newly elected Indonesian president and current defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, called for investigations into the civilian tragedies in Gaza. He also said that Indonesia would be ready to send peacekeeping forces to Gaza. In July 2024, Rana Sanaullah, an advisor to the Pakistani prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, called Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “terrorist.”

Additionally, due to the close U.S.-Israeli relationship, public anger against the U.S. has occurred. In October 2023, during a protest in Karachi, Pakistan, organized by Jamaat-e-Islami, the leader, Siraj-ul-Haq, said that the U.S. embassy would be seized if Biden continued supporting Israel. In Indonesia and Malaysia, boycotts were launched against American companies, such as Starbucks and McDonald’s, over allegations that these companies aided the Israeli war.

For other countries in the region, the impact of the ongoing war in Gaza has been much more nuanced. China, which has relations with Israel, has maintained a public stance that is fairly pro-Palestine. Additionally, Beijing, much like Moscow, is using the war to criticize Western hypocrisy on human rights and has even portrayed itself as a possible peacemaker. South Korea and Japan maintain close relations with the Israelis and do not recognize Palestine. Nevertheless, in April 2024, Japan and South Korea voted in favour of admitting Palestine into the United Nations. India, while recognizing Palestine and continuing to support a two-state solution, has moved publicly closer to Israel in recent years. Other countries in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have limited their involvement in this conflict by calling for a ceasefire and an “end to all hostilities.” However, these countries, and Thailand in particular, have had their citizens held hostage in Gaza. In November 2023, Hamas released 23 Thai nationals as part of a deal mediated by Iran, Egypt, Qatar, and Malaysia.

However, at the end of the day, Israel’s war on Gaza will have minimal impact on Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy. From Washington’s perspective, leaders who call Hamas “freedom fighters” are merely seen as a cause of domestic politics, given the pressure and influence many right-wing Islamist parties have in these countries. Besides, it is crucial to note that Hamas does not represent all of the Palestinian people, and none of these Asian countries officially recognize Hamas as the legitimate authority, but the Palestinian Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas.

Additionally, there is not much that countries in the Indo-Pacific can do to significantly alter the course of Israel’s war in Gaza. Even in the stridently pro-Palestine countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, the most they have done is to back South Africa’s case in the International Court of Justice (I.C.J.) that accuses Israel of genocide. Even China, which has been more critical of Israel, has not backed South Africa in the I.C.J. yet, fearing that China could also be prosecuted or investigated since it is accused of genocide against the Uyghurs.

Perhaps most importantly, the countries in the Indo-Pacific have more pressing issues, namely the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China, domestic political turmoil, climate change, and socioeconomic issues.

However, the one way that the Israeli-Palestine conflict could impact Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy, especially with America’s ties with the Muslim-majority countries in the region, depends on whether the Saudis do end up recognizing Israel, despite the war. If that happens, it remains to be seen if Jakarta and Dhaka will follow Riyadh – since the Saudis are considered the “leaders” of the Muslim world – or continue their current policy.