“I don’t want to see the prime minister of Japan coming to Pyongyang.”

—On March 24, Kim Yo Jong, the little sister of North Korea’s current leader Kim Jong Un, made her statement. While mentioning her personal one, it stated, “I don’t want to see the prime minister of Japan coming to Pyongyang.” Kim’s comment ruled out Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s eagerness to talk with North Korean counterpart: Since Takaichi was sworn in as the top executive job in October 2025, she has repeated her desire to engage talks with Pyongyang several times, including the US-Japan summit on March 19.

Japan-North Korea relations are not good. There are no official diplomatic relations between the two countries. Moreover, Tokyo suffers from a series of missile launches by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and concerns about its nuclear program. Furthermore, Japan has joined the global sanction scheme against Pyongyang since 2006, when it conducted the first-ever nuclear test. What motivates Takaichi to talk with North Korean regime? The answer is the so-called abduction issue.

What is the abduction issue?

In the 1970s and 1980s, North Korean agents abducted many Japanese to train operatives who conducted activities in Japan. According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 17 people are officially recognized as abducted by Pyongyang, and Japan’s National Police Agency designated 870 Japanese citizens as “specific missing people,” who are likely to have been kidnapped by Pyongyang. At first, Japanese authorities and media outlets dealt with separate issues. However, since Kim Hyon-hui, the North Korean agent involved in the bombing of Korean Air 858 in 1987, confessed that one Japanese woman helped disguise Kim as Japanese, the Japanese public was aware that abduction issues might be conducted by North Korea (Later, it was revealed that the woman who taught Kim Japanese was Yaeko Taguchi, one of the abductees)

Koizumi and Abe’s efforts to bring back abducted people.

In the 1990s, the Japanese public called for holding Pyongyang accountable for abduction issues and other human rights abuses. At the same time, some argued for the normalization of relations with the DPRK after the end of the Cold War.

In 2002, then-Japanese PM Junichiro Koizumi made the first-ever official visit to Pyongyang. Koizumi met with Kim Jong-il (the current leader’s father). During the summit, Kim admitted the abduction issue and made an apology while he denied any involvement. Then, Koizumi brought back five abducted Japanese people. In 2004, he visited North Korea again and took five abductees’ families. However, Pyongyang refused further handover of Japanese citizens, including Taguchi, saying the rest of the abducted Japanese were already dead. Due to North Korea’s 2006 nuclear test and the following nuclear and missile development, Japan had to put the abduction issue in the backseat as Tokyo pressured Pyongyang both economically and diplomatically.

Shinzo Abe, who became Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, sought a breakthrough. Abe himself was a member of the delegation on the 2002 visit. During his first brief tenure as the PM, Abe established the post of Minister for Abduction Issues. After returning to the post in late 2012, he tried to engage in diplomacy with Pyongyang to resolve the abduction issue, despite his previous harsh rhetoric. After several back-channel talks, Japanese and North Korean negotiators reached the so-called “Stockholm Agreement” in 2014: North Korea agreed to conduct an overhaul investigation over all Japanese abductees and missing people there by establishing the “special investigative committee.” In turn, Tokyo promised to lift some economic sanctions, including the entry of North Korean ships for humanitarian purposes and the comings and goings of people between the two countries.

However, the expectation was short-lived. Many families of abductees criticized the 2014 agreement as a huge concession. North Korea delayed the release of the results of the investigation into all Japanese missing people in the country several times. Then, the result was disappointing: it stated all of them were already dead, which was the same as Pyongyang’s official stance oｎ the issue. Finally, DPRK unilaterally disbanded the special investigative committee in February 2016 as Tokyo reimposed the economic sanctions following Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test in that year. While his efforts to speak with the North Korean counterpart continued, including through mediation by US President Donald J. Trump, Abe left office in 2020.

Takaichi seems to have reasons to resolve the abduction issue. One main reason is that abductees and their families get older. Sakie Yokota, the mother of Megumi Yokota (who was kidnapped by North Korean agents in 1977), turned 90 this year. Shigeru, Megumi’s father, passed away in 2020. Even Megumi herself is supposed to be 62 in 2026. It is natural that Takaichi and the abductees’ families are anxious that they might die without seeing their children or siblings return.

How likely is the Japan-DPRK summit to happen?

 Aside from Kim Yo-Jong’s comment, how likely is the Japan-DPRK summit to happen? The answer is highly unlikely. North Korea seems to have no incentive to talk with its Japanese counterpart. The current situation is quite different from that in 2002: At that time, Pyongyang faced several external and domestic crises, including the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, the 1992 diplomatic normalization of China and South Korea, and the so-called “Arduous March,” the 1990s famine that wiped out possibly three million North Koreans. Then-supreme leader Kim Jong-Il might expect to draw economic aid from Tokyo using the abduction issue as leverage. (It was said that North Korean officials got excited with Tokyo’s offer to provide a $10 billion economic package after the normalization.)

The situation quietly changes. Pyongyang restores ties with China and the Russian Federation, the successor state of the USSR. Each strengthens military, political, and economic ties, such as the sending of North Korean soldiers and ammunition to Russia, which is invading Ukraine. Moreover, any offer of economic aid by Tokyo might be seen as a unilateral exit from the sanction regime, damaging solidarity with the United States and South Korea.

The recent US-Iran war also complicated Takaichi’s effort to talk with North Korea. Looking at Iran, which is seeking to have nuclear weapons, Pyongyang might think that Tehran was attacked due to the absence of a nuclear arsenal. Moreover, Takaichi might expect President Donald J. Trump to press Kim Jong-Un to resolve the abduction issue through personal diplomacy. The current war makes such an effort difficult now.

“The problem is that the ball for the abduction issue is in Pyongyang’s court,” one Japanese foreign policy expert said. “Nobody knows the whole picture of the issue, except for the North Korean government. It depends on how much the DPRK is up for the issue and whether new facts that could change the current situation will come into being,” the same expert spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic issue.

What should Japan do next? “What Tokyo can do now is to watch Pyongyang’s reaction after offering the proposal of a Japan-DPRK summit,” one expert says. The expert continues, “Takaichi might think that she can realize the summit with the North Korean counterpart if possible.”

It’s undeniable that North Korea might not be a trustworthy negotiating partner. It deceived the international community regarding the nuclear issues. As for the abduction issue, Pyongyang even sent the fake bone to the Japanese government in 2004 and said Megumi Yokota was already dead. Above all, Pyongyang has maintained that the abduction issue was already resolved at the 2002 summit. Kim Jong-Un and Yo Jong might have difficulty reversing their father’s view on the issue.

However, compared with recent predecessors, Takaichi might have some advantages. She received a huge mandate by winning the February 8 snap election and maintaining a high approval rating. Also, she might not be obsessed with the abduction issue as much as Abe, who called for bringing back all abductees once and for all. These might indicate there is room for some kind of deal. However, Takaichi might lose the current solid support among the Japanese public and conservative base if she incorrectly mishandles the issue and jumps to a shallow compromise like the 2014 agreement.

“I will resolve the abduction issue during my tenure as a prime minister,” said Takaichi during the March 25 session at Japan’s National Diet. There is little time left for abductees and their family. Even the passing of time will never resolve the issue regarding its viciousness as North Korea violated Japan’s soverignty by kidnapping its citizens. Now is the last chance to prevent the abduction issue from being just one “historical” issue.