Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a landslide victory in the February 8th election. The snap election provides Takaichi with a strong parliamentary mandate, potentially enabling her to advance ambitious economic and national security agendas.
“Make the Japanese Archipelago stronger and more prosperous. It is the beginning of huge, huge responsibility, making me feel like I must brave myself,” said Takaichi at the press conference on February 9th, after the governing Liberal Democratic Party (L.D.P) occupied 315 of 465 seats in the House of Representatives (or the Lower House), for the first time in the country’s post-World War Ⅱ history that one party dominates two-thirds majority. The 64-year-old female prime minister pledged to implement three significant policy changes: a drastic reinforcement of national security policies, strengthening the government’s intelligence capabilities, and so-called “responsible active fiscal policies,” including a two-year cut in the consumption tax on food, while emphasizing coordination with other opposition parties.
Many Western leaders scrambled to congratulate her on her victory. “I’d like to extend my heartfelt congratulations on the victory of the Lower House Election,” President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan posted on X in Japanese on February 8th. “Congratulations to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Coalition on a LANDSLIDE Victory in today’s very important Vote,” said US President Donald Trump on February 9th’s Truth Social post.
The victory of Takaichi and its coalition has huge implications for several domains. Securing a two-thirds majority may allow her administration to pursue major legislative initiatives more assertively. Domestically, the LDP and its coalition partner, the reformist Japan Innovation Party (J.I.P), might find it easier to pass proactive stimulus policies, including a two-year temporary suspension of the consumption tax on food to mitigate inflation. (During the February 9th press conference, the prime minister reiterated that the source of revenue would not be covered by deficit-financing government bonds.)
The victory could strengthen Japan’s presence on the global stage. For the United States, the landslide victory consolidates Takaichi’s position on trade and security in the Indo-Pacific, especially ahead of the US-Japan summit on March 19. Furthermore, the election outcome may be interpreted in Beijing as a sign that Japanese voters are willing to support a firmer stance toward China, particularly her remarks last November, which implied the use of force in the event of a contingency in Taiwan to defend the United States. Or, from a broader national security perspective, the administration might promote legislation to strengthen the country’s intelligence community and increase the defense budget to exceed 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In Japan’s post-war history, winning (or losing) a snap election is key to whether the administration solidifies its mandate. The Japanese constitution states that the dissolution of the Lower House is one of the “Emperor’s constitutional functions,” the ceremonial and formal acts by the Japanese Emperor, with the Cabinet’s consent and advice. Many of Japan’s prime ministers have dissolved the Diet to gain more support. A good example is Shinzo Abe. During his tenure, Abe called for snap elections twice (in 2014 and 2017) and secured the majority each time, making him the country’s longest-serving prime minister from 2012 to 2020. (He briefly served as the post from 2006 to 2007）On the other hand, Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi’s predecessor, dissolved the Lower House soon after Ishiba was sworn in as prime minister in October 2024. However, his governing coalition lost its majority, making his political foundation vulnerable and leading to his resignation almost a year later.
Takaichi is likely to focus on revitalizing the economy soon after the election, as her protégé Abe did. Her administration may take time to address ambitious national security legislation, such as an anti-espionage law, and a possible constitutional amendment that would severely restrict the country’s use of force, both of which could be contentious among the Japanese public. (While the prime minister is eager to establish the National Intelligence Secretariat to strengthen the country’s intelligence, soon.)
One Japanese proverb says, “Tighten your helmet straps after winning.” While Takaichi doesn’t face a national election until the 2028 Upper House election, whether her cabinet becomes stable and the long-running administration, in capable of navigating the intense security situation in the Indo-Pacific region, depends on how she executes the electoral promises for the next two years.
