The European Union on December 17 announced it would be sanctioning several major Belarusian companies suspected of working with the Belarusian regime. This announcement comes on the back of months of increased pressure from the EU resulting in the sanctioning of 88 people and seven entities to date. In a Council of Europe press release, the EU stated that the sanctions aimed “to put pressure on the Belarusian political leadership to prevent further violence and repression.”

Protests have engulfed major cities across Belarus in wake of the August 9 presidential election which was marred with claims of rigging and fraud in-favour of the long-term president of the country. Supporters continue to be driven by their firm belief that the presidential election was stolen from the opposition candidate Mrs. Tsikhanouskaya, the English teacher turned opposition figure who officially only won ten per cent of the vote. The unrest has resulted in approximately 30,000 arrests and, according to the Viasna Human Rights Centre, the detention of 169 political prisoners.

The UN Human Rights Commission, UN News, announced that “We are extremely alarmed at the hundreds of allegations of torture and other ill-treatment in police custody,” citing reports of 450 documented cases of torture and/or ill-treatment by Belarusian security forces. The Belarusian Interior Ministry has continued to deny these allegations.

Despite the increase in sanctioned entities and individuals, the exiled opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, speaking to Euronews on December 16, called for the EU to go further with sanctions and that current sanctions ‘‘not enough.’’ Mrs. Tsikhanouskaya’s frustration was supported by the research director of the East Centre Think Tank, Andrei Yeliseyeu, who told Ananova news that ‘‘EU sanctions have had no direct effect on the regime and have only provided symbolic support’’ for the opposition.

The majority of the sanctioned businesses operating in Belarus or Russia leaving them relatively immune to EU sanctions. GHU company, sanctioned on December 17, is a Belarusian real-estate company, meaning that its operations are mostly national whilst VOLAT provides military vehicles to the Russian and Belarusian military. To date, the business community is yet to be forced into open antagonism with Lukashenko over sanctions.

The resilience of the business community in face of sanctions is reflected in the resilience of the overall economy. The Observatory of Economic Complexity states that 60% of all imports into Belarus come from Russia whilst 38 per cent of Belarusian exports head for Russia. Economically, Belarus is dependent, but not on the EU. With Putin standing behind Lukashenko, the effects of western sanctions may only serve to drive Lukashenko further into Putin’s “sphere of influence.”

Recently leaked documents from a November 19 agreement between the Kremlin and Minsk stated that either side may carry out a wide range of law-enforcement-type operations on the other’s territory if “such assistance is of interest to the other.” Suggesting the Kremlin is prepared to cross the border in the name of ‘assisting’ the regime in Minsk.

Mrs Tsikhanouskaya, speaking to the New York Times on December 13, stated that ‘‘it is only a matter of time until Lukashenko is forced out of power.’’ The optimism of this statement may result in disappointment if unrest on the streets is not converted into unrest amongst the elite members of Lukashenko’s regime. Sanctions from the EU do not appear to have bought this turn in sentiment any closer.