On September 10^th, Storm Daniel hit the eastern Mediterranean, leading to extreme flooding and major loss of life in Greece, Türkiye, and Bulgaria. Of all the countries affected by the cyclone, however, Libya has suffered the most severe impact. The worst occurred in Derna, a port city in eastern Libya, after two dams burst, flooding the area and sweeping entire neighbourhoods into the sea.

By the 17^th, the U.N. reported that the death toll amounted to nearly 4,000, with over 9,000 more missing. In the weeks following the flooding, residents of Derna have set out to protest against regional officials.

It is clear to both experts and citizens of Libya alike that the disastrous consequences of the flooding are in large part due to government neglect. Tarek Megerisi, a Libya expert and senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told N.B.C. News on September 21^st that “the country is becoming a failed state,” drawing attention to the lack of “careful and systematic management of the Libyan infrastructure.”

In fact, Libya had sufficient warning to prevent the crisis before it arrived. More than a year ago, in 2022, hydrologist Adelwanees Ashoor from Libya’s University of Omar Al-Mukhtar published a report declaring that the Derna area “has a high potential for flood risk,” necessitating “periodic maintenance” for the dams. Ashoor correctly predicted that “in the event of a big flood, the consequences will be disastrous for the residents of the valley and the city.” Indeed, a disaster has occurred. As a result, the flood’s devastating impact is the fault of “human negligence,” Dr. Hani Shennib, president of the National Council of U.S.-Libya relations, told the B.B.C.

The government inaction which resulted in such disastrous consequences can be attributed to Libya’s extremely volatile political landscape. Though Libya is theoretically one state, in practice it is governed by two opposing administrations, engaging the country in constant domestic conflict. Based in the western capital city of Tripoli, the U.N.-backed Government of National Unity (G.N.U.) is led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. In Eastern Libya, on the other hand, power is wielded by military leader General Khalifa Haftar, who heads the Libyan National Army militia. The governments brokered a ceasefire in October 2019; however, conflict persists between the two sides, with dire implications. According to U.N. data from 2021, the B.B.C. says, “around 135,000 Libyans have been forced from their homes and over 800,000 are in need of humanitarian aid.”

The two-government system clearly exacerbated the deadliness of the flooding – it is difficult to co-ordinate a comprehensive and efficient response to crises, as was previously seen in Libya’s poor response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Storm Daniel’s case, each of Libya’s two governments announced different precautionary measures. Furthermore, foreign aid has encountered obstacles since countries must negotiate with both administrations. Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization Petteri Taalas said on September 14^th that Libya’s “[divided] political situation is a driver of risk,” pointing specifically to “the fragmentation of the country’s disaster management and disaster response mechanisms, as well as deteriorating infrastructure,” which, Taalas said, “exacerbated the enormity of the challenges.”

It is imperative to hold Libyan leaders accountable for their negligence. An international inquiry should take place to investigate the inaction of key officials, especially Haftar and the mayor of Derna, the former of whom reportedly ignored calls by the latter to evacuate the area. An inquiry would reveal exactly what went wrong in the response to Storm Daniel. In terms of a solution in the long run, it is imperative that the two Libyan governments work towards re-unification, whether by holding a general election (as affirmed by the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2656) or by first forming a provisional unity government. Although not much could have prevented Storm Daniel from hitting – it is a natural disaster after all, due to broader trends of climate change – had the infrastructure been properly maintained and the area been evacuated, the dams need not have collapsed and the number of deaths would doubtless have been dramatically reduced. Both would have been accomplished if Libya were led by one legitimate, stable, and competent government.