Since June, catastrophic flooding in Pakistan has forced the evacuation of 2.5 million people and claimed at least 900 lives, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Reuters reports that more than 4,500 villages in Punjab province have been submerged since late August. Most recently, the BBC reported that nine people died on September 9 after a rescue boat capsized.

“Monsoon rains are likely to increase in the coming decades, so this issue is not a one-year fix,” Dr. Syed Faisal Saeed, chief meteorologist at the Pakistan Meteorological Department, told the BBC in late August. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif echoed that concern, saying, “We must keep in mind that this trend will continue in the coming years. It now depends on us how we confront this challenge” (Associated Press).

Pakistan is no stranger to devastating floods. In the summer of 2022, record-breaking rainfall left 1,500 people dead and affected 33 million, according to a 2023 study published in IOP Science, Climate Change Increased Extreme Monsoon Rainfall, Flooding Highly Vulnerable Communities in Pakistan. That flooding wiped out vast swathes of cropland and destroyed critical infrastructure.

Experts warn that climate change is intensifying both the severity and unpredictability of monsoon rains, according to the Center for Disaster Philanthropy. Summer monsoons are driven by warming land masses, and shifts in global temperatures as well as air pollution influence rainfall patterns. However, isolating the exact impact of climate change on monsoons remains difficult due to the many contributing factors and current limitations of climate models.

The burden of climate-fueled disasters is not shared equally. Those least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions are often the most severely affected. In Pakistan’s case, the 2022 floods revealed how proximity to floodplains, inadequate infrastructure, and deep-rooted socioeconomic vulnerabilities amplified the devastation, according to the IOP Science study. This year, Prime Minister Sharif has given officials 300 days to draft a plan to “address challenges posed by climate change” (BBC).

The crisis comes amid a broader global emergency. The World Meteorological Organization recently confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, surpassing the 1.5°C warming threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement. As climate change accelerates, a global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions remains critical for safeguarding both human health and future security.