ISTANBUL– Turkey delays launching its novel Russian S-400 defense missile system in light of the coronavirus outbreak, however plans to activate it will continue after the pandemic against U.S. pleas.
“There is no going back on the decision to activate the S-400s (but) due to COVID-19 … the plan for them to be ready in April will be delayed,” said a senior Turkish official, according to Dominic Evans of Reuters.
Jonathan Marcus, a correspondent for BBC News, said in a 2019 article that during the time of the S-400 deal, Turkey dually decided to invest in the U.S. F-35 program. The country planned on purchasing 100 F-35 warplanes from America with specialized military training.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the director of the German Marshall Fund research group based in Ankara, said Washington is still holding out hope and view Turkey not completely lost, according to Evans. Unluhisarcikli said that Washington believes the chance to distance themselves from Russia and gain a tighter relation with the United States is still possible.
Both Turkey and the U.S. are members of NATO, but Russia is not. Turkey’s location is ideal for the U.S. because it borders Syria, Iraq, and Iran, who are in current opposition to the U.S, Marcus said. However, increased ties with Russia, who are allied with NATO enemies such as Iran, have U.S. officials worried about Turkey’s own loyalties.
After completing the $2.5 billion Russian investment, the U.S. threatened Turkey with economic sanctions and the removal of the F-35 program if Turkey kept both systems in Ankara, said Marcus. As of last year, he also said that the Turkish president, Tayyip Erdogan, reported he did not believe the economic sanctions would happen in an interview following a meeting with President Trump.
Contrary to Erdogan’s statement, congress still maintains their threat of imposed sanctions on Turkey if they followed plans to activate the Russian missile in April. The virus has evidently changed the course of action for Turkey, but Richard Outzen, a senior adviser at the State Department, said if they chose to launch the S-400 after the threat of the virus has ebbed, the threat of economic sanctions will most likely not be withdrawn, said Evans.
While relations between the U.S. and Turkey have been relatively stable in recent years, U.S. officials mainly fear the acquired S-400 missile staying at the same base in Ankara as the U.S. F-35 fighter jets could make this American technology vulnerable to Russian technicians, who would then be able to discover flaws in the technology, according to Marcus.
The Syrian conflict had been a priority for Turkey up until the spread of the virus. Efforts to combat the virus are now given top priority in Turkey, similar to the rest of the world. Turkey currently holds the lead for most COVID-19 cases outside the United States and rest of Europe, a staff member of Al-Monitor reported. On 20 April, President Erdogan announced lockdowns from 23 to 26 April for 31 provinces country-wide, which happens to be during Ramadan, reported Al-Monitor.
The economic effects of the coronavirus could be devastating for Turkey. Evans said that Turkey just got out of a recession last year. A recent poll by Reuters on Tuesday showed economists estimate Turkey’s economy to contract by 1.4% in 2020, marking the end of a decade without economic decline, said Diego Cupolo at Al-Monitor. Unemployment could also be drastically affected, in which Cupolo said the International Monetary Fund predicts could increase as much as 17.2%.
Therefore, it’s sensible that many believe Turkey’s fragile economy is the true reason for the missile postponement, according to Metin Gurcan of Al-Monitor. If the Russian missile is put to use, the looming American economic sanctions would only worsen the likely damaged economy of Turkey, Gurcan said. More so, without the U.S F-35 defense system at Ankara, Turkey could be detrimentally affected.
However, another issue with the S-400 system is that left in Ankara, political unrest could erupt nationwide; opinion polls show many believe the system would do better if sent to the Syrian-bordered city of Idlib, where Turkish troops could use the assistance staving off Iranian threats, said Gurcan.
Ultimately, the coronavirus grants the opportunity for the U.S. and Turkey to negotiate and compromise on a deal.
