Israel will vote today in the second national election within a five-month period, where current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be standing for reelection in a pivotal moment for Israeli politics. After having failed to form a majority-seat coalition with other right-wing parties following the November election, Israel is calling for reelection that, according to CNN and public opinion polls, is too close to predict.

Two parties (out of nearly 40) are the closest in the race for a majority: current Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party and former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party.

The Israeli Governmental System And All Its Complexities

In order to grapple with the significance of this election, it is important to understand how the Israeli governmental system operates and why exactly they have called for the second election in less than a year.

Israel’s government is officially a parliamentary democracy where, like the U.S. and other similar systems, there are three branches of government. In an article by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, the Israeli governmental system is explained in all its complexity: rather than two parties competing for the presidential seat, as seen in the U.S., more than 40 parties are currently in the running and, instead of voting for specific candidates, voters are considering between parties who elect (through primary election) a figurehead for their party; this is similar to the U.S., however, the party with the more votes wins more seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament (called the Knesset).

In an ideal and straight forward election, the party who wins at least 61 seats will be in control of the government; however, this has never happened in the history of Israeli politics. Rather, the party that wins the most seats will need to form “coalitions” with like-minded parties in order to higher their seat count. If these coalitions fail to meet the 61-seat count, or if party leaders resign and disqualify their party from the coalition, re-elections will take place.

In the Israeli November elections, Netanyahu’s coalition was jeopardized when Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman resigned, withdrawing Lieberman’s far-right Beitenu party from Netanyahu’s coalition. According to an NBC article, Lieberman’s resignation was in protest over a ceasefire with Gaza militants, Palestinians who are in control of the Gaza Strip and who are officially considered to be terrorists by both Israel and the U.S.. In a statement, Lieberman called the ceasefire a “surrender to terrorism,” despite the fact that the Associated Press has reported that this clash—occurring on November 12^th, 2018—between Israeli and Hamas forces was instigated by an Israeli attack of the Gaza Strip blockade—one that left only one Israeli army officer dead as well as seven Palestinians.

Cries of Corruption… On Both Sides

While this election is monumental in the politics of Israel, it is also quite important to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s legal standing. According to BBC, Israel’s attorney general is planning on indicting the Prime Minister on corruption charges (bribery and breach of trust), alleging that Netanyahu accepted gifts from wealthy businessmen and gave favours in return for positive press coverage. Netanyahu could be the first Prime Minister elected with criminal charges under his belt, a position that he may use to pass an immunity bill in order to pardon himself.

Netanyahu has also screamed cries of corruption, accusing rivals of plots to steal the election, according to the New York Times. Weeks before the election, Netanyahu’s Likud party attempted to pass a bill that would have allowed party representatives to film inside polling stations, in an alleged attempt to prevent voter fraud. However, critics have claimed that this stunt was only meant to suppress Arab voter turnout and increase the Likud’s chances of winning a majority, according to the New York Times.

U.S. Involvement In The Election

In his race for victory, Netanyahu has boasted about his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, claiming that Trump has “endorsed” his campaign, according to an article by Haaretz. Billboards across Israel feature the Prime Minister and the U.S. President together, illustrating their positive relationship. Donald Trump has tweeted about their “tremendous alliance” and has repeatedly expressed support for Netanyahu and his party through plans on negotiating a defence treaty with the state of Israel after the most recent elections. Trump praised the Prime Minister as being a “great” leader during the April elections, according to Haaretz, and has publicly recognized the annexation of Golan Heights—a territory won from Syria during the Six-Day War of 1967.

Despite the fact that U.S. Presidents have notoriously been involved in Israeli elections, the Trump administration’s influence and involvement has met a new magnitude with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo being the first to visit Jerusalem’s Western Wall and former national security advisor John Bolton (just fired by President Trump) visiting the state during the April election, according to Haaretz.

Peace In The West Bank Jeopardized

This election is critical for Israeli-Palestinian peace relations which, if Netanyahu wins and forms his coalition, could be jeopardized by his newest far-right promise to annex parts of the West Bank. This, according to CNN, would give Israeli sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea—areas which have been regarded by Palestinians and other parts of the international community to be sites for a future Palestinian state under the two-state solution. This “two-state solution” is simply a term for the peace negotiations that envision a sovereign Israeli state living peacefully beside a sovereign Palestinian state. While the boundary between the two territories is still under dispute and is one of the main motivations for conflict, this new plan to annex parts of the West Bank could be a major blow for any potential peace agreement in the future.

According to an article written by HISTORY on the origins of the West Bank conflict, the Six-Day War of 1967—fought between Israel and the Arab states of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan—resulted in Israel seizing the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza strip from Egypt, the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Golan Heights from Syria. The legacy of this influential war remains deeply embedded within the tense geopolitics of the region. Israel had doubled in size as a result of the victory, and—with it—absorbed over one million Palestinians within its new borders containing the West Bank, according to HISTORY. This caused a major refugee crisis as Palestinians fled the region, one that they still believe is illegally occupied by the Israeli state.

Netanyahu hinted that the Trump administration’s Vision for Peace in the middle east—a plan said to be unveiled after the Israeli election—would support his coalition in annexing said territory. Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party has said that they have been long-time supporters of annexing the Jordan Valley, but condemn Netanyahu’s announcement as “propaganda,” according to an article by CNN, saying that the Jordan Valley is “a part of Israel forever.”

Others have criticized this plan of annexation, saying that it will eliminate all possibilities for peace or a two-state solution. In a statement recorded by CNN, Ayman Odeh, representative of Arab citizens of Israel in the Knesset, has said that this plan for annexation is the “official declaration that Israel is effectively an apartheid state.”

This statement of intent has also been criticized as an “empty promise,” however, this is the first time Netanyahu has drawn physical boundary plans on a map; the Prime Minister has highlighted “access routes” on the said map which would allegedly give Palestinians freedom of movement, according to CNN. This “freedom of movement” has resonated as more so a “freedom to leave”—an undeniable invitation to exit what Israel has asserted to be their territory.

A Contest Of Ideology Or Personality?

Though this election has fantastic weight in the international arena, some, like Shmuel Rosner—senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute—claim that the election is more so a contest between two personalities rather than a contest between right and left, seeing that both parties are ideologically right and have similar opinions on policies—especially those to do the annexation of the West Bank. This election calls into question democratic practices and questions of corruption, U.S. involvement, and the potential termination of the political career of the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel’s history.

It is wishful thinking to assume that peace in the region is more likely if one candidate wins over the other, however, predictions that both parties will be forced to create a joint coalition if neither wins the minimum number of seats reasserts Rosner’s idea of a personality contest rather than one of ideological significance. No matter the outcome, the world will have to wait for not only the U.S.’s drafted peace plan but also for further action (military or otherwise) between Israel and their Palestinian foes. The election is too close to call, but surely no matter the outcome, there will be no close call for peace.