On March 18^th, Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn wrote that 87.8% of the votes with a turnout of 74.22% will allow President Vladimir Putin to overtake Joseph Stalin, becoming Russia’s longest-serving leader for more than 200 years. The elections held between March 15^th and 17^th 2024 saw three other candidates: Nikolai Kharitonov from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation; Vladislav Davankov, nominated by the New People Party; and Leonid Slutsky, representing the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia. Together, they are part of the so-called ‘systemic opposition’, which refers to parties sitting in the State Duma — and thus part of the system — offering alternatives to Putin’s policies. This opposition is a façade: in reality, as the European Parliament wrote in one of its briefings, they support most of Putin’s policies and ideas, including the invasion of Ukraine.

Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Dr. Nigel Gould-Davies, following years of studying Russia and its political dynamics, paints a grim picture of Europe’s future. Dr. Gould-Davies says that Russia’s presidential election highlights the shift towards a wartime narrative by Moscow, aligning the election with Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Additionally, he suggests that Putin is likely to further consolidate his power, prioritizing military and security interests, and suppressing dissent within both civil society and elite circles. Dr. Gould-Davies believes that this re-organisation of the government following the elections, with the replacement of Mikhail Mishustin (Russia’s PM) by someone with closer ties to the military, could signal a shift towards a more militaristic regime under Putin’s leadership. Putin’s growing confidence in his country’s ability to endure economic and political pressures, coupled with uncertainty about Western commitments, emboldens  him to continue the war in Ukraine. Warfare is likely to define Putin’s rule in the future, which has grave implications for both domestic and international dynamics.

We should pay close attention to Dr. Gould-Davies’s concerns about Europe’s future. The mere existence of a controlled opposition confirms that elections in Russia cannot be fair or free, and Alexei Navalny’s death is proof of this. He died on February 16^th due to natural causes (as Russian officials claim) in a penal colony north of the Arctic Circle, where he was interned because he was Putin’s biggest political threat. Like him, many others that have the courage to express their dissent against Putin have encountered a similar fate. He keeps acting as he pleases and the West’s actions (or lack thereof) are clearly not helping. Putin’s rule is becoming a serious threat not only to ordinary Russians or Ukrainians, but for Europe and the whole world too.

Two weeks before his demise, Navalny launched a protest movement on X (formerly Twitter) called ‘Noon Against Putin’. As Politico and Reuters report, Navalny’s supporters went to polling stations on Sunday at noon and voted for any candidate other than Putin.  Although thousands of people followed his plan, the opposition lost its most powerful leader with Navalny’s passing, and other significant opposition figures are either dead, imprisoned, or abroad. Politico even writes that two prospective contenders who backed immediate peace talks with Ukraine, Yekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, were disqualified from challenging Putin in the race because the Central Election Commission had found ‘irregularities’ in the documents supporting their candidacy.

With an electoral victory that catapults him beyond the tenure of Joseph Stalin, Putin’s grip on power tightens on the Eurasian giant. But repercussions extend beyond Russia’s borders. With Europe teetering on the brink of uncertainty, the West’s response remains tepid. As the Kremlin consolidates its power, the spectre of a wider conflict looms large, threatening international peace and security. In the face of such grave challenges, the world must heed the warning signs emanating from Russia. The time for complacency is over; decisive action is needed to confront the growing threat posed by Putin’s regime.