Political Fingerpointing By US and Russia–Failure of Syrian Ceasefire

The latest in the series of attempts to stem the violence in Syria has failed, with the joint US-Russian sponsored ceasefire breaking down overnight. The ceasefire was intended to allow humanitarian access to besieged Syrian cities such as Aleppo, Moadamya, Al-Waer, Talbiseh and Douma. The political impetus for the September 12 ceasefire was to maintain a cessation of hostilities for 7 days, to prove the requisite cooperation for the establishment of a joint US-Russian exercise against ISIS and Jabhat al-Sham. Under the agreement, the US had to pressure the rebel groups to cease fighting and in return, Russia was to pressure Assad.

Although the breadth of the deal is a breakthrough in the 5-year long political stalemate, it has been underscored by deep skepticism of each party’s willingness and capacity to abide by the terms of the ceasefire. US-backed moderate rebel groups remain unconvinced by the ceasefire, pointing out the lack of penalty for the Russian-backed Syrian government if it breaks the agreement. Frustration grew over the Syrian government’s failure to issue access permits to aid convoys, and ceasefire violations continue to mount in the besieged cities, still mostly without access to the promised humanitarian supplies.

The UN Security Council was forced to cancel a meeting set up to discuss whether to endorse the ceasefire, billed by a Security Council spokesman as “the last chance to end a five year war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced millions from the country.” The agreement was welcomed by a wealth of international foreign ministers, and the Security Council cited the failure of Washington and Moscow to agree on how to characterise the ceasefire as the reason for the cancellation of the meeting, which would have legitimised the truce.

Political fingerpointing by the US and Russia has prevented the agreement from gaining the international (UN) and domestic (Syrian) support it required to be truly effective. The truce discussions have become just another vehicle for the countries to cast the other as deliberately obstructive to peace efforts. Both US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov have condemned the other for causing the “repeated and unacceptable delays of humanitarian aid.”

It would be a truism to contend that ceasefires are effective ways of alleviating human suffering in times of conflict. What must be noted is that the window of opportunity for capitalising on the general fatigue felt by all parties after the brutal 5 year conflict is closing quickly, as the continued fighting erodes what little goodwill remains. The comments and conduct of Washington and Moscow only further compound the sense of futility and consequently the prospect of an end to the conflict is no closer.

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