Iranian President Calls out Arab Countries, Threatens Harsh Retaliation to Further Israeli Aggression on the Eve of Israeli Counterattack

On April 17th, President Raisi of Iran called out Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE for cooperating with the U.S., France, and the U.K. in defense of Israel on Saturday in a coordinated effort that revealed the messy loyalties of the Middle East. Although signaling adamant opposition to the Israeli response to October 7th, Jordan has proven more malleable than expected, triggering Iranian media to target Jordan for their compliance. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, having stopped short of providing the West with airspace, retain a more neutral position vis a vis Iran, but have seen their relationships with Iran suffer as a result of Saturday’s defense. On Thursday night, Israel mounted a minimal retaliatory strike on Iran, cautiously putting the ball back in Iran’s court.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in response to the April 1st Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus that “[Iran] will make [Israel] regret this crime and similar ones with the help of God.” The Iranian army reportedly claimed that the attack on Israel “achieved all of its objectives.” Further underscoring the point that Saturday’s attacks had intentionally caused Israel minor damage, President Raisi suggested that “nothing would remain from the Zionist regime” if it had been Iran’s intention.  Directing his attention to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, he said, “[t]hose countries who sought to normalize relations with this cruel and criminal regime are ashamed before their nations today.” Arab officials said the Saudis and Emirates did everything the West asked but open their airspace to them. At the same time, Jordan capitulated entirely, lending intelligence, air space, and military support to the mission to defend Israel. Following the attacks, Jordan’s state media downplayed its role in defense of Israel. On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said, “[w]e’ve got to make sure there’s no further escalation.” Saudi Arabia and the UAE issued a rare joint statement suggesting “self-restraint” in the Middle East to spare it “from the dangers of war and its dire consequences.” Iranian officials have yet to respond to Israel’s latest attack on Iran, possibly to downplay the severity of Thursday night’s damages. 

The cooperation of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE in the defense of Israel on Saturday threatens to disrupt warming regional relations that have taken decades to harbor. Having recently re-established diplomatic ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia risks going from cold peace to hot conflict with Iran by cooperating with Israel. The UAE has demonstrated sympathy for Iran in the face of its isolation from the West, providing Iran with an economic backchannel to avoid the setbacks of American-imposed sanctions. Jordan’s relationship with Iran has been tumultuous since the former recognized Israel in 1994. Still, Jordan had been building pan-Arab solidarity with its strong condemnation of Israel’s response to October 7th. 

Tensions have been high between Israel and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in the latter state. The Revolution saw the replacement of the Israeli embassy in Iran with the Palestinian embassy and a large-scale repudiation of Israel as an imperialist project. In 2015, the UN Security Council reached an agreement with Iran that would prevent it from enriching uranium to levels consistent with the production of nuclear weapons. This agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, was terminated by President Donald Trump in 2018 and preceded a nationwide increase in uranium enrichment and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) production. In 2020, President Donald Trump approved the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, inciting tensions further. The Israeli response to October 7th, along with the latest bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, have incensed Iran to strike back. Now that Israel has made a direct attack on Iran in response to Saturday’s assault on Israel, the world waits for Iran to make a statement or action regarding Thursday’s counterattack. 

The reaction of the UAE, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to the Iranian attack on Israel presents complications for peace in the Middle East. From the Iranian perspective, Arab cooperation in defending Israel from this particular attack constitutes a defense against Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. To avoid the worst possible outcome, Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia must leverage their airspace and intelligence and insist their support is not unconditional. Considering the small scale of Israel’s counterattack on the night of April 18th, it seems Israeli decision-makers may be questioning their ability to rally regional allies to their defense.

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