Moldova’s pro-Russian autonomous regions have come under increased pressure as Moldova looks to gain EU membership. The loyalties of the Moldovan people are split between the West and Russia, owing to the country’s historical ties to the Soviet Union and its current leadership under President Maia Sandu, a former World Bank official. Moldova hosts two autonomous regions, the first being Transnistria to the northeast and the enclaves of Gagauzia to the south. With both carve-outs of Moldova receiving counsel from Russia, the area will likely be the next flashpoint in the war between the West and Russia in Eastern Europe. 

Transnistria, which has had Russian troops stationed in its borders since the 1992 Transnistria War, is a central energy hub for Moldova. Under President Sandu, Moldova has begun diversifying its energy imports to lessen its reliance on Russian energy from Transnistria. In an additional jab to Transnistria, Moldova has leveled increased tariffs on energy imported into Transnistria. In an appeal to the Russian Duma, the Transnistrian Congress asked that Russia “implement measures for defending Transnistria amid increasing pressure from Moldova, given the fact that more than 220,000 Russian citizens reside in Transnistria.” On the Moldovan side, Transnistria’s pleas for help were labeled a “propaganda event,” and the increased duties on imported energy represented “no danger of escalation.” 

The Gagauzian leader Evghenia Gutul has recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the heels of increased tension with Moldova. As it becomes increasingly clear that Moldovan officials want to achieve EU membership at any cost, Gutul is concerned about Gagauzia’s future status. According to a 1994 peace resolution between Moldova and Gagauzia, the latter has the right to autonomy even in the event of integration with Romania. The likelihood that Moldova will willingly integrate itself with Romania for EU membership has increased sharply since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. Prime Minister of Romania Marcel Ciolacu has been a strong proponent of Moldovan integration into Romania, stating that “there are no more Moldovans, there is no more Moldovan language, there is the Romanian language and there are Romanians.” In recounting her meeting with Vladimir Putin, the leader of Gagauzia said, “I informed Vladimir Vladimirovich about the lawless actions of the authorities in Moldova, who are taking revenge on us for our public position and loyalty to our national interests. Chisinau, step by step, takes away our powers, cuts our budget, violates our legal rights, provokes instability and destabilization in Gagauzia and in the whole country. ” 

As Moldova moves closer into alignment with the EU, it will have to navigate its relationship with autonomous regions such as Transnistria and Gagauzia. Steps towards escalation with Russia, such as Moldova’s recent defense pact with France, suggest that the future of Moldovan politics will be marred by internal conflict and potentially ensnared into great power conflict between the West and Russia. While it is non-escalatory for Moldova to begin diversifying its energy imports, leveling increased duties on energy into Transnistria is an apparent provocation. Suppose Moldova looks to integrate into Romania without recognizing the special autonomous status of Gagauzia. In that case, the country will inevitably be further fractured under the weight of great power conflict, much like neighboring Ukraine.