Ambassadors from 27 member states of the European Union (E.U.) “agreed in principle” on June 14 to begin accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on June 25. The two countries applied to join the E.U. shortly following Russia’s invasion in 2022. The E.U. is expected to formally approve the decision to negotiate during a meeting on June 21, and has already claimed that both Kyiv and Chişinău meet all criteria for the formal start of accession negotiations. However, even if the decision is approved, the accession process will likely still take years before both countries become members. There appears to be opposition to the accession from Hungary, the friendliest country in the E.U. to Russia. Especially as Hungary is set to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the E.U. in July, some fear this could stall accession progress, as the move requires unanimous support from all member states.  

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, wrote on X, “I welcome the in principle agreement on the negotiating frameworks for accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova.” He also stated, “We keep our promises and we will support you along the way to membership.” Along with Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to support Ukraine in both its E.U. and N.A.T.O. bids in addition to saying he would set up a €200 million support fund for the Ukrainian economy. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shares Michel and Macron’s enthusiasm to move forward with negotiations, as Ukraine is struggling to fend off Russia’s military invasion. The president remarked, “This is a victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe.” Mihail Popşoi, Deputy Prime Minister of Moldova, similarly affirmed, “We will do our utmost to make sure we get this message across that there is a better tomorrow and that is within the European Union.” Due to Russia’s invasion, Popşoi noted, “This past two years without exaggeration have been by far the most difficult [for Moldova] in the past 30 years.”

Ukraine and Moldova have been moving rapidly to prove themselves to the E.U.; thus far some of their efforts have centred around battling corruption and ratifying legislation to protect sexual minorities. The question, however, is whether these improvements will sufficiently prepare them for symbiotic and sustainable memberships within the E.U. In addition to support that could help the countries better retaliate against Russia’s invasions, Florian Gassner, associate professor at the University of British Columbia, asserted that Ukraine has a “highly educated, highly motivated, entrepreneurial young society” that could benefit greatly from the prosperity that comes with E.U. market access. Additionally, E.U. membership could further strengthen security and development by building support for the two countries among the international community and providing resources for long-term development. Security is a crucial element to Ukraine and Moldova in their pursuit of E.U. membership; since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has also faced a series of difficult situations, including straying missiles landing in its territory, a severe energy crisis, rampant inflation, and a significant influx of Ukrainian refugees. By supporting Moldova, the E.U. can indirectly extend its support for Ukraine’s war efforts while also assisting Moldova’s pro-Ukrainian government. 

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, released a statement on June 17, 2022, laying out the early standings of Ukraine and Moldova as E.U. membership candidates. Ukraine received praise for its presidential-parliamentary democracy, active civil society, fair electoral system, and implementation of 70% of E.U. rules and standards. Although not appearing to receive quite the same level of praise as Ukraine, Moldova received commendation for its pro-reform and pro-corruption path, but was told to keep working on its economy and public administration. Opposing the statement by von der Leyen, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán argued that Ukraine is too corrupt and lacks a civil society, thus designating them as unfit for E.U. entry at this time. In 2023 alone there were several high profile cases of corruption in Ukraine, including war profiteering accusations against the defence ministry, the implication of top officials in embezzlement, and the firing of military recruitment chiefs for stealing money. However, Mark Cancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies assured, “It’s important to keep pushing back against potential corruption, and President Volodymyer Zelenskiy seems to be aggressive in doing that.” Despite claims of corruption, Orbán decided to allow the negotiations just one day after the Commission released €10.2 billion to Hungary that they had previously frozen. Although Orbán’s decision to let the vote pass may have been encouraged by monetary circumstances, the provision of the €10.2 billion has brought Ukraine and Moldova one step closer to vital assistance. However, it is critical to determine whether E.U. accession is the best way for the E.U. to help Ukraine and Moldova without risking their own wellbeing in the long run. 

Ukraine’s potential E.U. inclusion raises economic concerns; an internal E.U. study in July 2023 revealed that if Ukraine were to become a member in the near future, it would be eligible to receive €186.3 billion over the E.U.’s seven-year budget due to the E.U.’s system that equalises living standards across all member nations. As a result, some countries that are currently net recipients of E.U. funds would become net contributors, and existing contributors would have to pay more. Furthermore, rushing into the accession process may allow corruption, particularly in Ukraine, to be overlooked, which may have serious implications later down the road, as critical European decisions may be blocked through Ukraine’s veto power. The E.U. already has problems with member states working against it on certain issues, and in order to best promote democratic decision making, corruption in Ukraine must be thoroughly rooted out. Furthermore, there may be quicker or more efficient ways to help Ukraine that do not require E.U. membership. It also must be remembered that E.U. membership is long-term and also comes with duties, not just perks.

Ukraine applied to join the E.U. in February 2022 and Moldova applied shortly after in March 2022. Their applications followed a speech delivered by Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, on February 21, 2022. The speech laid out a long list of alleged grievances against Ukraine as justification for Russia’s special military operation that was announced the following day. Underpinning Putin’s accusations against Ukraine was his disbelief in the legitimacy of Ukraine’s identity and statehood. Throughout Putin’s time in office, Moscow has favoured policy towards Ukraine and Moldova reliant upon the assumption that their respective national identities are artificial and fragile. However, in spite of efforts by Russia, the current war has further united Ukrainian citizens across various regions and backgrounds, thus reinforcing the split between Ukraine and Russia while concurrently strengthening E.U. support for Ukraine’s accession. 

According to polling conducted by the International Republican Institute, clear majorities in Ukraine and Moldova favour E.U. accession, confirming their enthusiasm and willingness for membership. If accession is viewed as an opportunity for immediate support followed by long-term growth and development, rather than a quick-fix tool without follow-up, then Ukraine and Moldova’s respective E.U. memberships have the potential to be successful and symbiotic. No partnership or alliance is ever going to be perfect, but in this rapidly changing, and at times hostile world, it is encouraging to witness countries making strides towards collectively supporting one another in dire times of need.