On 25 July, 2024, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, son of cartel kingpin El Chapo, and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, El Chapo’s former partner, were arrested by U.S. federal authorities. While Guzman surrendered voluntarily, Zambada was taken against his will. Murky circumstances surround the arrest of the two Sinaloa Cartel members, but the unfolding story revealed by officials familiar with the operation alleges that the arrest of both individuals was organised by Guzman. Guzman appears to have led Zambada onto a flight to supposedly examine a piece of land in northern Mexico; however, the plane then landed in El Paso, Texas, where federal agents were waiting. The dual arrests are now considered one of the greatest victories for U.S. law enforcement against cartels. Mexican officials were informed of the arrests through a phone call with the U.S. Embassy in Mexico that afternoon. Guzman and Zambada have both pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking charges.

Despite the victory for U.S. law enforcement, various issues have arisen following the arrests. Guzman and Zambada are at odds against one another, claiming different versions of the story that led to their capture. The Guzman family lawyer asserted that Zambada voluntarily surrendered after extended negotiations. However, Zambada’s attorney, Frank Perez, pushed back against this account, alleging that Guzman “forcibly kidnapped” Zambada and flew him to the U.S. against his will. In addition to these opposing viewpoints in court, a lack of coordination between U.S. and Mexican leadership cast a veil of uncertainty over Mexican authorities trying to ascertain what actually occurred. While the U.S. Embassy said in a statement, “This represents a great victory for both countries. It is the result of a very precise work based on the principles of respect for our respective sovereignties and we do this work as partners,” some Mexican government officials voiced their lack of inclusion in the operation. President of Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Secretary of Security Rosa Icela Rodríguez both called for the U.S. to reveal the circumstances surrounding the arrests, with Rodríguez clarifying that “the Mexican government did not participate in this detention or surrender.” This may generate problems for Mexico, as the fallout of the sudden arrests could have potential repercussions for civilians in Mexico.

Without knowledge of the structure and inner workings of cartels, the arrests of Guzman and Zambada may signal success in cleaning up the state of illicit drug sales in the U.S., as Zambada was charged in February of this year with conspiring to manufacture and distribute fentanyl, an extremely potent synthetic opioid that has killed tens of thousands of Americans. However, despite Zambada being at the top of the hierarchy of the cartel responsible for the majority of drugs killing Americans, according to D.E.A. Administrator Anne Milgram, his arrest will likely have a minimal effect overall on the distribution of drugs by this criminal organisation. This approach of targeting high-level drug lords without confronting the cartel structure in its entirety is called the “kingpin strategy.” This strategy has been a cornerstone of the U.S.’s war on drugs and follows the idea that if the leadership of a cartel is attacked, the rest of the cartel will be left in disarray. However, Falko Ernst, a senior security analyst at the International Crisis Group, counters this logic, asserting that the kingpin strategy does not dismantle major drug trafficking organisations, but rather fragments them. Ernst remains adamant that the arrests of Guzman and Zambada will not disrupt the flow of narcotics into the U.S., regardless of how important the two were to their cartel’s drug trade. Zambada’s role will be filled by another, just as El Chapo’s was when he was captured in 2016. Zambada himself even stated in a 2010 interview that “If they catch me or kill me… nothing changes,” confirming how the removal of one “kingpin” member does not alter the overall productivity of the criminal organisation.

The kingpin strategy generates additional problems, as the splintering of cartels caused by the arrest of one or multiple leaders often results in violent feuds over new leadership that impact the lives of local civilians. With Zambada gone, violence within the Sinaloa Cartel is bound to ramp up. Andres Villarreal, a journalist based in Culiacan, Sinaloa, reports that a wave of uneasy calm has washed over the northwestern state of Sinaloa, as the recent arrests have put the local population on edge; “It’s like that calm that happens after a storm – or before a storm.” Attacks on the cartel’s hierarchy have heightened uncertainty among nearby residents who fear the possibility of violent incidents. Further explained by Iliana Padilla Reyes, professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, cartels operate within well-established structures, and disruptions to this structure may result in succession disputes and significant turbulence within the criminal organisation and its broader ecosystem. Reyes asserts, “This policy of going after the heads of organised crime is what has caused these violent breaches of agreements, and that generates a lot of instability.”

The lack of communication between the U.S. and Mexico throughout this situation, paired with the fallout of the kingpin strategy, may have serious implications for cross-border relations between the two countries. On the one hand, the U.S. is celebrating a victory against cross-border smuggling, and on the other hand, experts in Mexico fear for local civilians who may now face a wave of instability. Ernst highlighted the frustration experienced by the Mexican government at the surprise nature of the arrests, pointing out that the series of events “could very well backfire in terms of further curbing trust between both countries, in terms of collaborating on matters on security.” He also added, “We’ll see to what degree Mexico will try to leave clear that they are not fans of this sort of thing becoming a normalcy.”

The Sinaloa Cartel is one of the most powerful narcotics trafficking organisations in the world and is known to be responsible for the trafficking of vast amounts of cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, and fentanyl into U.S. territory. The cartel was co-founded by El Chapo and Zambada in the late 1980s, and has since brought in billions of dollars in profits. While El Chapo has been arrested and escaped from capture several times throughout the decades, Zambada had never spent a single day in jail prior to his arrest in July 2024.

In future operations that involve both the U.S. and Mexico, a relationship guided by cooperation must prevail. No country affects the U.S. more on a daily basis than Mexico, according to the Center for American Progress, a public policy research and advocacy organisation, so forging a strong and communicative partnership will allow future events to be handled in a way that is transparent and efficient. Ties between the U.S. and Mexico touch upon many aspects of daily life in both countries, thus necessitating a level of international cooperation that encompasses an agenda beneficial to both nations. It is of the utmost importance for the U.S. to vanquish the flow of illicit drugs coming from Mexico, but it is also important for the people of Mexico to not fear the fallout of cartel activity in their home regions. Acknowledging both imperatives is crucial to acting in a way that is advantageous to the citizens of both nations. A shift from the kingpin strategy to an approach that more broadly encompasses criminal hierarchies may be better at curbing drug flows while also preventing the violence that results from replacing one kingpin with another.