On Sunday, Jan. 21st, Ukrainian drones attacked a major gas export terminal near St. Petersburg in Russia. According to an article by Reuters, the large Russian energy company Novatek had to suspend operations after a large fire following the initial attack. According to Russian officials who spoke with BBC News, there were no injuries.
These attacks are consistent with Ukraine’s recent strategy of targeting Russian energy infrastructure. On Friday, Jan. 19th, a Ukrainian drone attack caused a large fire at a large oil storage facility in Bryansk, Russia. According to an article by The Guardian, Friday’s drone strike was the fourth attack on a Russian oil facility in the past three weeks. Soon after, on Wednesday, Jan. 24th, another Ukrainian drone hit a refinery in southern Russia, signaling a continuation of Ukraine’s strategic attacks on Russia’s economy.
Ukraine’s attempts to target key Russian energy and oil terminals are a strategy to hinder Russia’s war efforts, according to an article by the New York Times. Ukrainian energy security expert Mr. Lapenko told the New York Times that the international sanctions imposed on Russia have not been enough to slow their oil exports. Additionally, the Ukrainian army maintains that it is only attacking strategic locations that are linked to Russia’s military. However, according to the article, the recent drone attacks have resulted in power cuts for many Russian civilians.
Ukraine’s new strategy to attack Russia’s economic and military efforts is perhaps a direct response to Russia’s recent offensive attacks. According to a recent article from the New York Times, Russia’s aggressive offensive strategy has left Ukrainians tired, short of ammunition, and short of recruits. Russia’s population is three times the size of Ukraines, and their military resources are far more abundant. Ukraine has realized that it cannot beat Russia through conventional military efforts — according to another New York Times article, Ukraine has switched their efforts to guerilla operations and sabotaging key logistical points. An article by The Guardian emphasizes that Ukraine is learning to fight smarter as their supplies dwindle. According to an article by Euractiv, Ukrainian drone attacks involve small explosive loads and attack areas that are less defended within Russia, since they are not meant to destroy large civilian or metropolitan areas. Damaging Russia’s economy might make Russia switch their focus from offense to defense.
In the short term, attacking Russia’s economic system and preventing Moscow’s war effort may prevent civilian deaths and cause Russia to reconsider their offensive attacks. However, Ukraine’s drone strikes still do not offer an end to the war — according to an article by the New York Times, the attacks may even push Russia to take more drastic military measures and harden Russian civilians’ resolve against Ukraine. Ultimately, the conflict can only reach an endpoint through diplomatic efforts that address the root causes of the conflict, which would entail dialogue about historical and economic grievances in the region. International involvement could also play a large role, especially in terms of sanctions and mediation. The west’s reluctance to aid Ukraine economically and militarily is contributing to a military stalemate, prolonging the war and its devastating effects.
