Setting the Stage

Many political commentators have taken to calling the anti-quarantine protests the start of a new civil war in the United States. So, does the analogy hold water? Yes, it does.

The United States is at risk of a new civil conflict fought with germs instead of guns. Many will claim this analogy risks over-stating the impact of these protests. This is wrong. These protestors are putting thousands of lives at risk with their reckless behavior. At the time of writing this, 3 May 2020, the United States has just over 1.1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, with over 65,000 deaths, as reported by Johns Hopkins University. When I last wrote on the virus on 12 March 2020, there were about 1/10th of that number in the entire world. It’s clear the spread will not slow soon. Because of this, the government must treat these protests with the utmost severity.

So, what are the sides in the new civil war? Well, it depends on the scope with which we view the issue. Some analysts, like John T. Bennett of the Independent, have taken a broader approach. Bennett views the protests as a manifestation of a deeper divide between rural and urban United States. The second way to view the conflict is through a more myopic lens. This is the view of analysts like Rick Wilson at The Daily Beast. Wilson makes it clear that there are just “Pro-Plauge” and “Anti-Plauge” states. In either view, these Pro-Plague or rural groups must be taken seriously. Predominantly rural, Republican states and localities feel they can open up as the virus hasn’t impacted them severely. This puts the rest of the United States, namely the urban, densely populated, and predominantly Democrat populations, at serious risk.

The First Shots

The protestors have already fired the first shots of the COVID civil war. The very act of protesting and ignoring social distancing and quarantine guidelines helps to continue spreading the virus. In addition to simply protesting on the streets of their respective capitol buildings, these protestors are blocking streets needed to get to hospitals. This puts everyone in need of urgent medical attention, not just coronavirus victims, at risk. Make no mistake, these protestors are deeply motivated and unwilling to budge. The Guardian reports that groups like the Proud Boys, armed conservative militias, and religious fundamentalists are backing the protests. By swarming their capitol buildings armed with bullet-proof vests and guns, they have made their intentions clear. They’re not giving up without a fight. While they fired the first shots, they have yet to win the first battle.

The First Battle

The real battle will be in whether the protestors are able to successfully lobby their state and local governments into opening up their economies and cities. Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer has shown the kind of strength needed to win this war. Whitmer chose to extend the stay-at-home order even though she is in a state where pressure to open up has been extreme. Given that President Trump is the de-facto general of the Pro-Plague states, it’s unlikely that federal action will be implemented any time soon enacting a national quarantine. That means the onus is on the state and local government heads to push back against these protests. This will be difficult. The closer the level of government is to the people, the harder it becomes to ignore direct demands of the public. But it is what must be done.

The heads of local and state governments must take solace in the fact that there is widespread national support for the quarantine, even if there isn’t in their districts. A poll from Morning Consult and Politico found that 74% of people support a national quarantine. And, even though they are acting as leaders of only sections of the United States, each of their actions have national implications. That’s why it is an ethical and moral imperative to avoid accelerating the spread of the coronavirus past the point of hospital capacity.