Six Months Since The Coup: Prospects For Peace In Sudan?

On October 25, 2021 Sudanese military forces overturned the government. Sudan’s then administration, led by Abdullah Hamdok, comprised of a partnership between the military and civil representatives, with the task of transitioning towards democracy after the revolutionary overthrow of dictator Omar Al Bashir in 2019. In this transitional period, a fissure grew between the Nation’s military and civil actors. As economic conditions continued to deteriorate and public unrest grew, the military took the opportunity to forcefully seize power. The months following have been marred with mass protest smattered against a wall of State censorship and brutal crackdowns on dissent. What chance, if any, is there for building peace from the ashes of this coup?

Writing for Al Jazeera, Sudan’s former minister of justice, Nasredeen Abdulbari, highlights where peacebuilding prospects are bleak. Mr. Abdulbari explains that earlier in 2022 military forces “stormed the headquarters of the Sudanese Congress Party, where Khalid Omer (Sudan’s former minister of cabinet affairs) was attending a meeting with the representatives of a variety of anti-coup and anti-military-rule political organizations.” He goes on to explain that “security forces had also arrested Wagdi Salih, a lawyer and prominent member of the now-suspended Dismantlement and Empowerment Removal Committee (DERC).” Also mentioned is “the arrest of Mohamed al-Faki, a former member of the Sovereignty Council and co-chair of the DERC, on February 13, and Taha Osman Ishag, another lawyer and prominent member of the DERC on February 19.” The DERC was originally set up in 1989 to oust the Bashir kleptocracy. Abdulbari paints a stark parallel between the Bashir regime and today’s government. He also demonstrates where the anti-coup organizers are connected to the popular zeal which through the decades strived for civil and democratic rule in Sudan.

The International Community nonetheless insists that a partnership between the military and civil resistance must be restored. The ‘quad’ alliance of the U.S., U.K., Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E. posit that it would be ‘unrealistic’ to completely remove the military from power, and so have called on both sides to compromise. Muzan Alneel, a Middle East Academic and expert on Sudan, weighs in on the impact of this approach, claiming that the U.S. “went so far as to support an agreement between the military and the very same prime minister the military had overthrown late last year.” He continues, “Although the agreement meant keeping the generals in power, and was fiercely opposed by the people of Sudan, international diplomats, including the UN secretary general, kept calling on the people to accept it. They did not stop protesting – and their protests led to the agreement’s collapse.” Like Abdulbari, Alneel showcases the resilience of Sudanese civil society and the wholesale rejection of military rule.

This position of ‘no recognition, no partnership, no legitimacy’ is best understood when gaging the military regime’s effect on civilians. In Darfur, the Red Cross recently accused the Janjaweed, a government backed militia whose members have reportedly integrated into the Rapid Support Forces commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the government’s de facto deputy leader, of orchestrating violence. Fighting in the Kreinik area of West Darfur province wounded 98 people. Clashes in Darfur overall have killed 168 people according to Sudanese Aid Groups, while many more have been displaced. In these conditions, compromise with military rule is not an option.

The international community must heed the call of Sudan’s civil resistance. It has been recommended that Senior African Union and UN leaders condemn and call for an ending to unjust detentions. Regional and Human Rights organizations could also – on behalf of the victims – bring complaints before the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights or the UN Human Rights Council. Moreover, the Sudanese resistance could be better supported materially by the international community. For peace in Sudan, military rule must be universally condemned and the organized quest for civil, democratic, and peaceful government must be internationally supported.

Simon Kamau

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