On 15 May 2022, in response to Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine, Finland announced its decision to join NATO. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö stated that the Russian invasion has “altered the security environment [of Finland]” and that NATO membership would be necessary for securing the 1340 km border which runs between Finland and Russia. The landmark decision breaks the country’s previous foreign policy of neutrality, which it has maintained throughout the Cold War into the present era, which was the primary determinant of the country refusing to join the Alliance when previously invited in 2003. Finland meets all of the NATO criteria for being a member state: having a “functional democratic political system with a market economy,” “fair treatment of minority populations,” “commitment to peaceful resolutions,” etc. These criteria have made the state eligible for quite some time to join the defense pact. Yet still, the country has maintained an ambivalence toward the major world powers throughout previous decades, in order to maintain its independence and sovereignty.
Further, in public statements, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin indicated a likeliness that the application would be accepted, which would therefore grant Finland the security benefits promised by NATO allyship. “We hope that the parliament will confirm the decision to apply for NATO membership… we have close contact with governments of NATO member states and NATO itself,” said Marin. This optimism is not without basis. NATO member countries have increasingly been looking to expand the military capacity of countries that border Russia. Furthermore, invasion withstanding, NATO still maintains an “open door policy,” which indicates that “any European state which can contribute to the security and principles of the Alliance can be invited to join.”
If Finland were to be granted NATO status, it would have access to defence support from member countries. This primarily would mean backing from member countries, particularly the U.S., in militarily securing Finland’s borders. While Russia removed its troops from its border with Finland, in order to deploy them in its invasion of Ukraine, NATO military backing would provide the deterrence and defence necessary for the state to prevent the invasion of militant Russian troops into Finland. Given the situation in Ukraine, this fear is not without basis. Putin’s decision to invade the country has left many Russian-bordering states in fear of invasion.
This fear is further heightened by Finland’s historic relationship with Russia. The country, after having been seized by the Russian state in the 1800s, gained its autonomy during the communist takeover of the country in 1917. However, in 1939, Finland was invaded by Soviet troops, which led to the “Winter War” which lasted until 1940. During this time, Finland lost 10% of its territory to the Soviet Union. The war was resolved by a peace treaty between the Soviet Union and Finland. This treaty fostered a generally friendly economic and political relationship between the two states, which was continued when Finland recognized Russia as a state in 1991 and entered into a good relations treaty with Russia in 1993. Throughout these times, Russia has provided oil and gas to Finland, and engaged in other forms of political and economic exchange.
In accordance with this friendly relationship, Finland has historically opted to stay out of the “anti-Soviet coalition,” which can be seen throughout many Western alliances. The country opted to stay out of NATO in 2003 and has continued to remain neutral in its non-alliance with major powers, both Western and Soviet alike.
Finland’s transition out of neutrality into allyship with NATO powers is indicative of the large impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had on Europe. The invasion has broken the general peace in Europe which has been maintained since the second world war. Throughout Moscow, there has been an echoing of World War II sentiments surrounding Russia securing regional power in its neighboring countries. This narrative has further pushed forward the possibility of Russia revisiting an invasion of countries like Finland.
Furthermore, Russia has continuously warned Finland against joining NATO. Russia has used NATO allyship as reasoning for its invasion of Ukraine, citing that the Western alliance has posed a threat to Russia as a state. If Finland were to join NATO, it is possible that Russia may retaliate by deploying more weapons in Kaliningrad, which it has said it will do, along with increasing its cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and airspace violations.
First and foremost, Finland joining NATO will be necessary in protecting its people from a possible Russian invasion. With so many deaths, casualties, and refugees resulting from Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine, it is imperative that security measures are taken to prevent an escalation and expansion of Russian military forces while minimizing civilian impact. While neutrality has been the historic standpoint of the country’s foreign policy objectives, security threats such as the invasion of Ukraine are valid justifications for choosing to be under the shelter of major powers — especially if said powers have the military capability to accurately defend the state’s borders.
However, it will be important for NATO to accurately aid areas which are affected by the possible retaliation of the Russian government. While Russia does not necessarily have the means to escalate the conflict further, it is necessary that NATO member states are prepared to aid countries that may be impacted by further militarization and expansion. Additionally, it will be imperative that any arms or any other security capacity measures are used solely as defensive measures to the greatest extent possible, so as to prevent further escalation of the already destructive conflict.
