According to an article published by The Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Saudi Arabia invited Chinese President Xi Jing Ping to visit Riyadh in May. Middle-East relations experts predict that this visit is a strategic move for the kingdom towards strengthening strategic ties with their long-time trading partner of the East. In the context of the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and increased strains between Saudi-U.S. relations, this visit will set a precedent for geopolitical alliances between the states moving forward.
Saudi Arabia’s relations with China began in the late ’80s when Saudi Arabia secretly arranged an arms deal with China to bolster them with weapons that could be used for defense during the Iran-Iraq war. China traded medium-range missiles to Saudi Arabia, as no Western country was willing to do so. Since the making of this arms deal, China and Saudi Arabia have maintained positive trade relations. However, relations between the two states have largely shifted away from weapons and strategic security, and have moved towards being more focused on energy and trade. Currently, China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and the most vital trading partner for Saudi Arabia, which is the world’s largest exporter of crude oil – according to The Brookings Institute.
Under ordinary circumstances, Xi Jing Ping’s possible visit to Saudi Arabia would seem nothing out of the ordinary in terms of historical relations between the two countries. However, recent global tensions have brought more attention to the Chinese President’s meeting with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Specifically, Saudi Arabia’s role as a possible mediator in Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, in tandem with the state’s dwindling relations with the United States, may have a large impact on the outcoming of Xi’s visit.
Throughout recent history, the United States has been Saudi Arabia’s primary strategic political ally. This can be seen continuing all the way through the presidency of Donald Trump, who openly supported the country and maintained a friendly relationship with crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman. However, during the time of the Trump presidency, there rose an increasing push from Western human rights organizations for the United States government to put pressure on the Saudi rulership on account of human rights violations committed by the state. Under the rulership of King Salman and the de facto leader of his son, Saudi Arabia has launched a “disastrous” intervention in Yemen’s civil war, which has had a “Horrific toll on civilians and pushed the country to the brink of famine,” according to the LA Times.
Additionally, it is known that the Saudi leadership persecutes and punishes political dissidents who speak out against their regime. The primary and most politically important example of this is the brutal assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a reporter who openly critiqued the Saudi government in his work for the Washington Post. In response, throughout his campaign and subsequent election, President Joe Biden has spoken against the actions taken by the Saudi government with a specific target against the crown prince. When asked about the future of United States relations with Saudi Arabia in the Democratic primary, given the actions outlined above, Biden said, “I would make it very clear we were not going to, in fact, sell war weapons to [Saudi Arabia]. We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are.”
These promises have been met with policy. The first example is the Biden administration’s publishing of an intelligence report in 2021, which linked the crown prince to the death of Khashoggi. Biden has also refused to speak with the crown prince and has only made attempts at fostering diplomatic relations with King Salman. In addition, according to a report by the Wilson Center, Biden has taken the Yemen-Houthi rebels out of listing as a terrorist organization and suspended the sale of “offensive” weapons to the Saudi government. Still, however, the U.S. continues to take part in arms sales to the Saudi state.
The implications of these declining relations between the two states are still to be determined. However, according to Stephen Kalin, a lead Middle-East correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, who has been closely following U.S.-Saudi relations, this trend may be the impetus for Saudi Arabia to look toward China strategically. “Saudis feel like American politics is so unpredictable and so polarized that they can not really be sure whether the next administration is going to be friendly to them or hostile to them,” said Kalin, in a guest appearance on WSJ’s current events podcast. Additionally, Kalin says that Chinese leadership, which stays the same for longer periods of time, offers a more predictable option for the Saudi government. Kalin argues that while Saudi Arabia will not necessarily discard their key relationship with the United States, there will be an increasing push for “diversification” of diplomatic ties.
This “diversification” of foreign relations may be an increasing worry for the international community, especially given the current crisis in Ukraine. According to another article by the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia has already declined a class with the U.S., which “Wanted to build international support for Ukraine and contain surges in oil prices.” Saudi Arabia is a pivotal state for the international community in this crisis, most importantly because they are the largest exporter of oil. As the world undergoes large-scale energy shortages and gas prices soar– specifically in the U.S.– there is increasing pressure from Western states on Saudi Arabia to produce more crude oil, as the state is currently capable of producing more than its current levels. However, Saudi Arabia has refused to do so, along with the United Arab Emirates, which is another rentier state. The primary reason for this is that Saudi Arabia wishes to stick to guidelines outlined by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC has created energy alliances with Russia, which has brought the Saudis into closer relations with the Russian government. China and Saudi Arabia both abstained from signing the UN letter criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is highly possible that along with increased economic cooperation between these states, strategic alliances may begin to develop– which, if they were to occur, would be an increasing threat to Western influence throughout the globe.
Additionally, both sides of the Saudi-Chinese alliance have refused to condemn one another’s human rights violations. While Saudi Arabia has committed the atrocities outlined earlier, China has maintained an ongoing genocide of Uyghur Muslims. China has not addressed nor punished Saudi Arabia’s violations, and Saudi Arabia has done the same for China’s ongoing genocide. The increased economic and political strength of these countries, specifically with ongoing arms deals occurring between the two, may further exacerbate these crises.
The U.S. is currently refocusing its strategic alliances to be more centered on Asia, specifically with China. The Biden administration has already placed sanctions on China for their treatment of Uhyger Muslims. While these efforts, in addition to punishments placed on Ukraine, are steps in the right direction, there is a greater theme at play. Throughout this period of sanctions and policy against Saudi Arabia, many Saudis have criticized the United States’ historical role in the Middle East. Specifically, Saudis have blamed Western interventionism for the large political and social instability within the region. After the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Kabul in 2021, there is an increasing sentiment from those living in the Middle East that the United States has abandoned the region as a strategic partner. This may be a further reason why countries like Saudi Arabia retaliate against the U.S. via geopolitical alliances.
After Xi’s visit to the United States, The Biden Administration will have further insight into the future of geopolitical alliances between Eastern countries. It is imperative that the United States continues to punish the humanitarian crimes committed by these governments, but it is also necessary that they also keep diplomatic relations to maintain long-term involvement within both the Middle East and Asia regions. This is specifically important in terms of the Ukrainian crisis, as better relations with Saudi Arabia may prevent further geopolitical alliances of the state with Russia– so as to prevent further economic backing of their invasion.
