On August 5^th, the Chinese Coast Guard used water cannons to redirect a Philippine Navy supply vessel away from a disputed reef. The Second Thomas Shoal, or Ayungin Shoal, hosts a grounded Philippine warship and Philippine troops, who were expecting basic provisions. China’s Foreign Ministry claims that the Philippines’ occupation of the reef violates China’s sovereignty and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and the country itself maintains that its Coast Guard turned the boat away in “accordance with the law.” No one was harmed during the encounter.

“We will never abandon Ayungin Shoal,” a senior Philippine National Security Council (N.S.C.) official said during a joint conference with the military and coast guard. “We will continue to resupply troops in the grounded vessel as long as it takes. It is our right to bring what is necessary to maintain the station.”

The U.S. State Department also released a statement supporting the Philippines’ claim of the reef.

China’s actions have exacerbated tensions between Manila and Beijing, which have been rising since the retirement of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, who aimed to strengthen ties between the two countries. His successor, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has vowed to focus on protecting the Philippines’ borders – and is turning to the U.S. for assistance. China has called this alliance a decision “that could drag the Philippines into the abyss of geopolitical strife.”

The Philippines government has been increasing ties with the U.S. in a number of ways. President Marcos Jr. granted the U.S. access to four additional military bases (some of which face the South China Sea) to be used for joint training and military housing/storage. In return, the U.S. has pledged the nation $100 million U.S.D. in military aid, along with $82 million to upgrade its military infrastructure. The two militaries have also conducted joint exercises with live fire training at sea.

This strategy is not without risks, as provoking China could have potentially disastrous effects. Many political analysts view the U.S.’s military movement in the Philippines as a warning to China, since the United States has much to gain from antagonizing China through a proxy in this manner, but will not lose if the situation escalates. It is the Philippines who are at the forefront of this conflict, and they must be wary of eliciting a response they cannot handle.

Global powers have a long history of meddling in other countries’ affairs – with less than stellar results. The United States has committed to aiding the Philippines in the event of an attack in the South China Sea. However, the Philippines must remain wary, especially if the current situation were to change. American posturing is provoking a higher level of aggression from China, and the people of the Philippines will pay the price.