Among the justifications for the invasion of Ukraine, the one central to Kremlin propaganda is the West’s alleged violation of a promise that N.A.T.O. would expand “not one inch” eastward. Reversing this spurious claim, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared on May 22 that Germany and N.A.T.O. would “defend every inch” of the alliance’s territory.
Merz was speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania, at a ceremony marking the establishment of the 45th Panzer Brigade, part of Germany’s renewed commitment to N.A.T.O.’s eastern flank. The “Lithuania Brigade,” expected to comprise 4,800 troops and a tank battalion by the end of 2027, is the first German brigade permanently stationed abroad since World War II. As such, it is an early indicator of a new chapter in German military policy, the “epochal shift” invoked by former Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the wake of Russia’s invasion.
That shift has been called into doubt on several occasions, both in terms of its actual significance and its potentially negative consequences. An action group of the German Council on Foreign Relations (D.G.A.P.) concluded in December 2024 that Scholz’s half-hearted implementation had crippled Ukraine’s chances of victory and failed to ensure long-term German independence in energy matters. The lifting of the federal debt brake last March has permitted the German government to invest more aggressively in both defense and infrastructure. It is worth noting, however, that the parliamentary vote occurred mere days before the new Bundestag was set to convene, at which point the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (A.f.D.) would have had enough seats to scuttle the proposal.
Traditionally a staunch Atlanticist, Merz is contending with a U.S. president who has repeatedly threatened to abandon his allies unless they hike their defense spending. Most recently, President Trump said that N.A.T.O. countries should spend 5% of their G.D.P. on defense, well above the collectively mandated 2%. German military spending is projected to reach 3% by 2027. For its part, the Lithuanian government has unveiled plans to raise defense spending to over 5% next year, partly to fund the infrastructure required to host the incoming German troops.
At the same time, Trump’s ostensible concessions to Russia have pushed European leaders, chief among them Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, to adopt a more assertive stance toward defending both N.A.T.O. territory and Ukraine. If the deployment of the Lithuania Brigade exemplifies the former, an example of the latter came with Merz’s announcement on May 28 that Germany would help Ukraine produce long-range weapons without range restrictions, allowing the Ukrainian army to attack military targets inside Russia. Speculation is now rife as to whether Germany will supply Ukraine with much-desired Taurus missiles, a proposal repudiated by Scholz, who did not wish to see Germany directly involved in the war.
That ship may well have sailed, to hear Kremlin officials speak. Following Merz’s announcement, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that Germany is “directly engaging” in war with Russia. Weeks after Moscow celebrated the eighty-year anniversary of its victory in World War II, Lavrov made a pointed allusion to the history of Germany’s militarization, arguing that Merz’s policy would lead the country “down to its collapse.” Similarly, Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov characterized it as “further provocation of war”, aimed at obstructing a political settlement.
Russian media depict the Lithuania Brigade as yet another provocation, paradoxically citing its modest size. The state outlet Izvestiya enlisted a controversial German political scientist to explain that the Brigade was a “symbolic” gesture underpinned by no military rationale. Even if it were just that, however, it is unclear why this symbol should not have a deterrent function, emphasizing that Germany and others will defend “every inch” of N.A.T.O. territory.
The deterrent may already be working. Belarus’ Defense Minister announced that the Zapad military exercises, to be conducted with Russia this autumn, would be scaled down and moved inland so as to “de-escalate tensions in the region.” Given Russia’s resumed offensive in Ukraine, it is doubtful that it could spare the resources for a major military drill. Still, European leaders are wise to keep up the pressure, demonstrating to Vladimir Putin that N.A.T.O.’s resolve ends not one inch short of Ukraine.
