Germany, Russia, Ukraine: A Standstill Battlefield

Ukraine is currently at the forefront of separating Europe from the military conflict with Russia. Berlin has been accused of not doing enough to calm tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and that it is compromised by its gas pipeline project with Russia. Russia has massed troops near its border with Ukraine and demanded guaranteed security from the West. Germany’s new chancellor has said that staying silent is not a sensible option after years of tension on Europe’s doorstep.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz mentions that everything must be done to avoid military intervention in Ukraine. According to Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, tensions with Russia over Ukraine were hoped to be solved by diplomacy, and feared Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine, with the cyberattack against Ukraine heightening alarm. The cyberattack and hacking of government systems temporarily defaced government websites and warned Ukrainians to “be afraid and expect the worst,” hitting 70 internet sites of government, according to U.S. News & World Report.

Each aggressive act will have a high price for Russia, economically, strategically, and politically. Proper action needs to be enacted, primarily with a comprehensive NATO response and joint maneuvers. Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukraine minister, said Kyiv and Berlin were united in pushing to revive four-way peace talks on ending potential war in eastern Ukraine including Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia. Reassurances from allies that decisions would not be taken about its future without its involvement and agreement is imperative to proper compromise and adequate responses. The conflict is straining both Russia’s and Ukraine’s economy, with the market being a factor in the probability of Russia invading. The key is to keep both countries informed and act in unison.

Germany has supported Ukraine with aid and diplomatic backing in its standoff with Moscow since Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula and backed separatists in the Donbass region in 2014. Currently, one-third of Russian gas exports to Europe travel through Ukraine. As a result, several Central European states are highly sensitive to Russo-Ukrainian relations. Previous disputes between these two countries saw Russia turn off its gas pipelines to Ukraine, and this left millions of Europeans without gas during the winter months in 2006 and 2009.

The recently completed Nord Stream is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and is operated by Russian-owned Gazprom. Ukraine is opposed to this pipeline as it poses several problems; the country makes roughly one billion dollars annually from the current pipeline, and the competition would see Ukraine lose a substantial amount of revenue and its influence over Western Europe as its pipelines would become obsolete. As a result, Europe would become dependent on Russia, and the Russians could further meddle in Ukraine’s affairs without consequence. Germany stated that it could halt the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia if Moscow invades Ukraine, and Western nations rallied behind Kyiv over a Russian troop buildup stoking fears of war.

There is immense pressure from the U.S. and other Western allies to respond to any invasion by stopping the recently completed Nord Stream pipeline from going into operation. However, doing so would risk exacerbating a gas supply crunch in Europe that has been widely blamed on Russia and has caused energy prices in Europe to soar. Any invasion would be likely to trigger new international sanctions against Russia, with measures against Nord Stream widely seen as one of the strongest ways to put pressure on Moscow.

 

 

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