As Russia continues to attack Ukraine, the effects of the conflict are poised to exacerbate food insecurity and malnutrition around the world. The drastic reduction in exports comes from sanctions on Russia from the United States and the European Union, the blockage of Ukrainian Black Sea exports, lack of fuel for railroad transportation and the involvement of Ukrainian farmers in the defense of their country (BBC). Ukraine and Russia are two of the largest exporters of wheat, corn, barley, and fertilizer, products that are in even higher demand after other crop failures around the world from flooding and drought (New York Times). Rising food prices are expected to limit food access and could lead to unrest and violence as countries compete for the remaining supplies of wheat and fertilizer from other exporting countries.
David Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Programme explained, “Ukraine has only compounded a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe. There is no precedent even close to this since World War II (NYT).”
Several have criticized the impact of U.S. sanctions, such as Nooruddin Zaker Ahmadi, director of an Afghan imports company. “The United States has sanctioned the whole world,” he said, referring to the impacts of the sanctions on Afghan imports. Antonio Galvan, president of a Brazilian soybean association asked, “How many millions are going to starve to death because of the lack of fertilizers (NYT)?” “The men who need to work on the land, they’re all defending our land right now,” said Ivanna Dorichenko, a Ukrainian international trade lawyer, “Because if they do not defend the land, there’ll be nothing to work on at a later stage.”
Sanctions from the U.S. and E.U. targeted towards Russian oligarchs and leaders have intended to deter or punish Putin for his actions in Ukraine. The unintended consequences of the sanctions will be felt for the next year at the very least. The “perfect storm,” of COVID, conflict, and climate change, as David Beasley of the WFP puts it, has put millions more at risk of starvation. Rising food prices, while they will impact individuals in every country, will have the greatest impact on those who already cannot afford food. Governments and corporations that cannot compete financially with those of the United States or China, both of whom are vying for portions of the remaining grain exports, will be unable to purchase adequate food supplies for their people. Humanitarian organizations like the World Food Programme will also be impacted by the shortage in supplies as the number of undernourished people, currently, 800 million, could increase by 13 million people in the next year alone (WFP and BBC).
On March 11, 2022, the Food and Agriculture Organization reported the “likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters [Russia and Ukraine] of staple commodities could seriously escalate food insecurity globally.” More than 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for more than 30% of their wheat imports, with countries such as Armenia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan are importing nearly all of their wheat from this region (NYT). Food prices, which had already risen during the pandemic, could jump by 20% in the next year, according to the BBC. The shutdowns and supply chain disruptions from the pandemic have weakened the resilience of economies and food systems, especially in poorer countries, which are most at risk of seeing eruptions of conflict over high prices (Guardian). Putin’s invasion came when the world was least equipped to handle the consequences of sanctions and respond effectively to Putin’s brutal disregard for international law and human life.
From Madagascar’s climate change-induced drought to Afghanistan’s financial and diplomatic isolation under the Taliban to war and blockages of humanitarian corridors in Ukraine, the number of people facing emergency starvation levels will rapidly increase. According to the World Food Programme, 44 million people in 38 countries are “just one step away from a declaration of famine.” The true consequences of climate change, COVID, and conflict are far from visible and will be affecting the entire globe for the long term.