Turkey’s June 2023 general elections will be consequential for their 3.6 million Syrian refugees registered, with anti-refugee rhetoric and policies coloring debates. Last month, current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a plan to resettle 1 million Syrians in safe zones in northern Syria. However, the resettlement areas identified are wracked with rebel bombings and clashes between Turkish forces and Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. The idea that Syrians would voluntarily repatriate to these regions is far-fetched. Returning them involuntarily is illegal under international law. Kamel Kilicdaroglu of the Republic People’s Party, who’s entered to run as the opposition presidential candidate, has said on multiple occasions that “I will return the Syrians to their country when I take power.” 

President Erdogan, who’s slated for a re-run in 2023, pledged that Turkey wouldn’t “expel” Syrian refugees, but plans for the “voluntary repatriation” of over 1 million refugees. Increased refugee audits and inspections in Istanbul, alongside alleged deportations, undermine his commitment. Ahmed Dinar, a legal Syrian refugee in Turkey who claims a policeman forcibly deported him, told Middle East Eye, “I gave him my residency papers, but he took me to a police station.” Nadia Hardman of Human Rights Watch made clear that “sending people back to Syria when they fear persecution could amount to a breach of Turkey’s non-refoulment obligations.” While Erdogan’s refugee policies may be covertly hostile, opposition parties have made their antipathy no secret. Umit Ozag, leader of the Turkish Victory Party, told Syrians: “Your visits have ended; the Turkish community no longer welcomes you; go back to your country.” Director of the Syrian Lawyers Association in Turkey, Ghazwan Koronful, warned that “it is possible that the situation of Syrians in Turkey will deteriorate significantly until the next Turkish presidential elections, in 2023.” 

Concerning statements from officials are accompanied by increasing anti-refugee behaviors of Turkish citizens. Refugees have reported rampant discrimination, false accusations, and harassment against them. Muhammed, a Syrian engineer living in Turkey, said, “We are grateful to the Turkish nation that hosted us for the last seven years, but the harassment and lack of work were quite awful. Anti-refugee statements and the anti-refugee sentiment in Turkish society made it difficult for us to satisfy our basic needs… Turkish businesses would pay us lesser salaries and wouldn’t register us. When I look for legitimate salaries, the harassments have become threats.”

Turkey is a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, which means it is obligated to practice non-refoulment by prohibiting the return of any refugees who’d be at risk in their original countries. However, North Syria – where Erdogan wants refugees to resettle – is highly contested by Turkish, Turkey-backed Syrian, and Kurdish armies or militias. Many analysts say that far from a desire to help transition refugees home, Turkey’s aggressive seizure of “safe zones” are primarily intended to change demographics on the Syrian-Turkish border, diluting the Kurdish population with whom Turkey has long-standing animosities. Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State, has warned that these attacks “undermine regional stability,” and Kurdish activists have pointed out that they create more refugees. 

Of the over 7 million refugees from the Syrian war, most landed in neighboring countries, with about 4 million in Turkey, making them the world’s largest host of refugees. Though the World Bank, European Union, and other NGOs have tried to help Turkey accommodate the influx, providing adequate living conditions and opportunities has been difficult. As the Turkish economy enters a deeper crisis, many policymakers and citizens have turned to blaming refugees. A poll done by the Turkish-german University Migration and Integration Research Center shows that over 70% of Turkish respondents reported a generally “negative perception” of Syrians.

Turkey must honor its commitment to refugee protection, halt military incursions into Syria, and seek pathways to relieve its infrastructure and refugee needs, which do not include returning people to a wartorn country in which the leader, Assad, considers any dissenter a terrorist. At the same time, the international community must recognize the disproportionate service Turkey has done in accommodating Syrian refugees. Continuing to provide resources and policy suggestions and eradicating the practice of turning back refugees at the EU border is the only way to recognize Turkey’s heroism in responding to the nightmare at their back door.