More than 235,000 people were displaced between December 12 – 25 from the Idlib province in northwestern Syria, the last major region held by the opposition to President Bashar al-Assad, due to weeks of intense bombardment and a ground offensive by Syrian government forces that began on December 19.  Many of these displaced civilians have fled to the Syria-Turkey border, where official camps are already full and new arrivals have been forced to stay in makeshift camps with limited aid and an urgent need for shelter, food, and winterization assistance.  The combination of the increase in the number of refugees, shortages in medical care, and the UN Security Council failing, after vetoes by Russia and China, to approve a resolution that would allow the continuation of humanitarian aid deliveries, has led to concerns of Idlib becoming one of the worst humanitarian crisis of the Syrian civil war.

According to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, around 80,000 of the civilians escaping Idlib were headed towards the Turkish border.  In a news conference in Istanbul on December 22, Erdogan warned that Turkey would not be able to handle the influx of migrants and that the impact would be “felt by all European countries”, saying, “Turkey will not bear all alone the burden of this migration.  If violence against the people of Idlib does not end, this number will rise further.” Erdogan sent a delegation to Moscow on the 23rd for talks about stopping the attacks and finding a compromise on Syria

Belgium, Kuwait, and Germany proposed a UN resolution draft that would have allowed another 12 months of cross-border humanitarian deliveries to Syria from three locations, already removing one of the four aid crossings used since 2014 as a compromise with Russia.  Russia proposed its resolution draft that would have allowed two crossing locations for six months. Both resolutions failed during a vote on December 20, causing concern about reaching an agreement before the current UN authorizations for humanitarian aid to Syria end on January 10.  In a report to the Security Council, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that “the United Nations does not have an alternative means of reaching people in need in the areas in which cross-border assistance is being provided.”

In reaction to Russia and China’s vetoes, US Ambassador Kelly Craft told the UN Security Council, “This decision is reckless, irresponsible and cruel… There is no justification imaginable for any member of this security council leaving vulnerable Syrians civilians with few means of security vital aid,” adding that the consequences “will be disastrous.”  US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also criticized Russia and China for vetoing the UN resolution that would have allowed continued humanitarian aid sent to Syria.  In a statement on December 21, Pompeo said, “The Russian Federation’s and China’s veto yesterday of a Security Council resolution that allows for humanitarian aid to reach millions of Syrians is shameful… To Russia and China, who have chosen to make a political statement by opposing this resolution, you have blood on your hands.”

The Syrian Civil War has been ongoing since 2011, and Idlib is that last major area controlled by rebels that Bashar al-Assad has vowed to take back.  Russia and Iran have been supporting Assad’s forces while Turkey has backed the Syrian opposition. The current attacks in Idlib are in defiance of a ceasefire deal negotiated by Russia and Turkey in August as well as multiple calls for de-escalation of violence.  A concerning aspect of this conflict is the number of refugees that have been displaced from Syria. Turkey already hosts about 3.7 million Syrians, the biggest refugee population in the world, and there are concerns of a repeat of the 2015 migrant crisis if the attacks in Idlib continue.  

Turkey has been trying to work with Russia to find compromises, but Syrian actors also need to be included in any negotiations, because the conflict will not truly end without their cooperation.  With so many civilians impacted and displaced by this conflict, the effects will be felt long after the violence has ended. One solution proposed by Turkey to begin to help all of those who have been displaced is to set up a “safe-zone” in northern Syria to resettle refugees.  In the meantime, providing necessities, such as food and shelter, to refugees is something that all countries involved should prioritize, whether through a UN resolution, supporting nonprofits, or otherwise.