On January 12, the United Nations’ top court, the International Court of Justice, began its public hearings for a landmark genocide case. Over the past few weeks, judges have heard arguments for and against the claim that Myanmar has violated the 1948 Genocide Convention through its actions against the Rohingya, a Muslim minority group in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.

The Gambia filed the case against Myanmar with the I.C.J. in November 2019, roughly two years after a brutal offensive in which Myanmar’s military, responding to attacks by Rohingya militants on police posts, engaged in a violent campaign through the Rakhine State. Myanmar’s military operations resulted in the displacement of at least 750,000 Rohingya – mostly to neighboring Bangladesh. Reports documented widespread killings, mass rapes, and the burning of Rohingya villages. U.N. officials, as well as other governments, referred to the situation as “ethnic cleansing.” 

Many of the Rohingya who fled to Bangladesh ended up in Cox’s Bazaar, a city which today holds nearly 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, making it the world’s largest refugee settlement – an overcrowded area with little access to food, healthcare, or education. Rohingya have been seeking refuge in Cox’s Bazaar since 1982, when Myanmar denied them citizenship and rendered them stateless. But Myanmar’s increased persecution in 2017 created unprecedented emigration, severely straining both the Rohingya people and the Bangladeshi government. Funding has dwindled over the past eight years, meaning that in August 2025, Bangladesh’s chief advisor, Muhammad Yunus, announced that the country could no longer sustain allocating additional resources for its Rohingya refugees, half of whom are children. 

Given the crisis in Cox’s Bazaar and the continued volatility in Myanmar, the Rohingya’s road to repatriation remains unclear. In 2020, the I.C.J. provisionally ordered Myanmar to prevent genocide and protect the Rohingya, but these orders appear to have been ignored. Persecution continues; the Rohingya are still being displaced or worse. However, there is hope that a guilty verdict in the current genocide case will begin to bring about change. 

Myanmar claims that The Gambia’s allegations are “flawed and unfounded.” While the I.C.J. is currently hearing arguments in The Hague, it could be months or even years before the court delivers a final, legally binding judgement to hold Myanmar accountable. Moreover, many wonder what accountability could look like under these circumstances. A guilty verdict alone does not end the genocide. The I.C.J. has no enforcement mechanism to arrest or punish Myanmar officials. So what could actually happen? 

A guilty ruling can increase pressure on Myanmar by labeling it as a genocidal state, thus giving other governments clear legal grounds to impose diplomatic pressure, expand sanctions, and block investment. If a country previously hesitated to cut ties with Myanmar, they may use upholding an I.C.J. judgement as their impetus. Myanmar does not have the resources to withstand diplomatic isolation, and no country can shed the permanent international stigma of genocide. Furthermore, a guilty ruling can then serve as a legal basis for I.C.C. prosecutors or other domestic courts seeking to bring justice to individuals tied to the atrocities.

In short, finding Myanmar guilty of genocide is unlikely to improve the conditions of the Rohingya people immediately. However, it is an important step towards justice – one day, the Rohingya will be able to return home and live in peace. 

Additionally, this case has undeniable implications for other world conflicts, most notably the war in Gaza. When the Gambia first brought the Myanmar case to the I.C.J. in 2019, it established a precedent for third-party countries filing genocide cases. In 2023, South Africa filed a case with the I.C.J. stating that Israel violated the Genocide Convention in its actions against Palestine, and Israel has since refused the court’s orders to enable humanitarian assistance in Gaza.

The current case against Myanmar raises questions about whether Israel will be held similarly accountable for its atrocities, and overall, it serves as a warning to every abusive state across the world. As court proceedings continue this January, the Rohingya’s plight for justice will be on full display, and the world will be watching.