President Erdoğan has warned that a Turkish offensive in Syria’s Idlib province is “only a matter of time” in an address to his Justice and Development Party last Wednesday, as Assad’s Russian-backed Syrian forces press deeper into the region. Meanwhile, the mass entry of more than 2,590 Turkish military vehicles into Syria since the 2nd of February has been reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The statement follows failed talks between Turkey and Russia to restore the ceasefire in the north-western province agreed upon in 2018, while Turkish military deaths rise amidst violent clashes with Syrian government forces this month. Idlib has seen increasingly intense and frequent violence since last Spring, amplifying fiercely at the end of last year. The UN estimates over 900,000 people have been displaced in the region since December amongst Russian airstrikes. Of these, 60% are children. Attacks have reportedly been indiscriminate; targeting schools, health facilities, camps and basic infrastructure. At least 300 civilians have been killed in 2020.

Displacement camps are filling up as civilians struggle to flee the Assad army’s offensive, desperate to escape skirmishes, air raids and government forced reprisals. Many are left without adequate food or shelter, with the UN reporting of more than 82,000 civilians sleeping in open areas. Bitterly cold winter conditions, with ambient temperatures below -7°C are a further threat to life. The freezing temperatures have killed several children this month. Families are burning clothes and furniture in an attempt to stay warm.

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov responded to the threats: “If we are talking about an operation against the legitimate authorities of the Syrian Republic and armed forces of the Syrian republic this would, of course, be the worst scenario”.

Others have called for peace, urging leaders to deescalate any military confrontation. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday “The message is clear: There is no military solution for the Syrian crisis. The only possible solution remains political”. In the days before Erdoğan’s statement, Mark Lowcock, the UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, pleaded Security Council members and those with influence to “overcome individual interests and put a collective stake in humanity”. He added, “The only option is a ceasefire”. UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore implored those involved to think of civilians: “Children and families are caught between the violence, the biting cold, the lack of food and the desperate living conditions … It is time for the guns to go silent and for the violence to stop once and for all”. She warned that “a fresh wave of violence could leave them trapped between fighting lines or caught in the crossfire, with potentially fatal consequences”.

Idlib is one of the final strongholds for rebel forces opposing Assad’s regime, which it has been fighting in Syria’s devastating civil war that’s gripped the country since 2011. The UN estimates Idlib’s original population of 1.5 million has doubled in this time, as internally displaced civilians retreat from conflict and the government’s army. Assad’s forces are supported by Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. Turkey backs various opposition rebel groups and has established dozens of military observation posts in Idlib since 2017, many of which have since been engulfed by the Syrian Army. Erdoğan’s involvement in Syria is largely compelled by a desire to prevent a further influx of refugees crossing the Turkish border. Turkey’s economy has been struggling since 2018, much of the blame has been put on the 3.6 million Syrian refugees that have settled in the country in the last 9 years. Erdoğan’s political party suffered in the 2019 local elections, so the president is keen to quell any growth of this diaspora.

The success of the primarily Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Union Kurdish Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG) in neighbouring Rojava is further incentive for Erdoğan to maintain a presence in Idlib. Erdoğan likens the PYD and YPG to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish militant organisation operating an insurgency in Turkey since 1984. His anti-Kurd regime invaded the de facto autonomous region in October, citing his ambition to create a 30km wide ‘safe zone’ across the Turkey-Syria border. Success for the Turkish military in Idlib would fasten Erdoğan’s hold in northern Syria.

After Erdoğan’s statement last week, the Kremlin has asserted that Russia and Turkey are maintaining contact in efforts to avoid further escalation of the crisis in Idlib. Meanwhile, the future of the region remains unclear; civilian casualties continue to rise daily as families are pushed into an ever-shrinking territory, pressed against Turkey’s closed border. Despite this, Erdoğan asserts his readiness to heighten military aggression: “We are counting down, we are making our final warnings”.