Just days ago, potential U.S.-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia seemed possible. However, Ukraine’s future now remains uncertain as U.S. support wavers. In an interview with NBC, President Zelensky warned there is a “low chance to survive without the support of the United States.”

Under President Trump, the U.S. is shifting its approach to the Ukraine war. Instead of fully supporting Ukraine in reclaiming all its lost land, the U.S. now considers that goal unrealistic. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized this shift, “We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.” He further warned that pushing for this outcome would “only prolong the war and cause more suffering.” These remarks signal a move toward a diplomatic resolution that could involve territorial concessions and alternative security guarantees for Ukraine. Hegseth also made it clear that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table in any peace deal, likely as a concession to Russia in hopes of speeding up negotiations.

The Trump administration’s latest diplomatic push included a proposal for Ukraine to provide $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals to the U.S. in exchange for continued military support. However, Zelensky rejected the offer, citing the absence of concrete security guarantees, “I didn’t let the ministers sign a relevant agreement because, in my view, it is not ready to protect us, our interest.”

The U.S. has been Ukraine’s most significant ally since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. Beyond providing critical military aid—such as long-range missiles, artillery, and air defense systems—Washington has played a central role in rallying NATO and other Western nations to impose sanctions on Russia and maintain military and economic support for Kyiv. Since the invasion, the U.S. has supplied Ukraine with over $60 billion in military aid, making it the largest contributor to Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction efforts. Without this assistance, Ukraine risks losing key military capabilities and economic stability, which could shift the war in Russia’s favor.

Zelensky has raised concerns about weakening U.S. support. On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order putting a 90-day pause on all U.S. foreign aid while his administration reviews its priorities. This, along with his broader shift in foreign policy, suggests the U.S. is moving toward de-escalation rather than long-term military backing. If U.S. aid declines, Ukraine will have to rely more on European allies, whose defense budgets and stockpiles are significantly smaller than those of the United States.

With Ukraine rejecting Trump’s latest proposal, the negotiation process is even more uncertain. The U.S. has been pursuing direct talks with Russia to resolve the conflict, raising concerns among European allies and Ukrainian officials that Ukraine might be sidelined during these talks. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned against divisions between the U.S. and EU over the peace talks, urging for a united front to ensure a fair and lasting resolution.

The ongoing shifts in U.S. policy and Ukraine’s rejection of the recent proposal highlight the fragility of Ukraine’s leverage in ending the war. If U.S. support dwindles, Ukraine may need to reassess its strategy for long-term survival, potentially strengthening alliances with European nations, increasing domestic defense production, or pushing for renewed diplomatic negotiations. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Ukraine can secure the international backing it needs to sustain its defense and move toward a lasting peace.