On December 27th, Ugandan police made international headlines following the arrest of 29 people. Allegedly, these 29 individuals were part of the large paramilitary group, the Ugandan Coalition for Change (UCFC). These arrests mark a further breakdown in the African nation’s stability following the recent re-election of President Yoweri Museveni. The UCFC established recent camps in central Uganda, and police officials have stated that the group is behind attacks on police earlier in December that left at least four dead and guns stolen. The suspects had “attended training in weapons and military drills at the UCFC rebel camps,” according to police, and an official statement read, “they joined the rebel group with plans of overthrowing the sitting government.” So how did Uganda get to this point? And on a more macro scale, what are the implications of this statement for peace and stability in the region.

The major cause of anger within Uganda is built-up frustration with the current sitting president, Yoweri Museveni. Museveni has been in power for over thirty years, and has held onto power through an election that has been decried as fraudulent by challenger and popstar, Robert Ssentamu, better known as Bobi Wine. Wine has argued that the election is illegitimate, citing mass internet blackouts, police crushing of peaceful anti-Museveni protests, broken electoral ballot machines, and Museveni’s history of removing age and term limits from constitutional documents as signs of corruption. Currently, Wine has fled the country but maintains that the Ugandan people should resist the results of this election through all constitutionally legitimate means. On the other hand, Museveni has stated that he would accept the results if he lost, as “Uganda is not [his] house”.

Before the election in January of 2021, Wine complained that the vast majority of his polling agents were shut out from observing the election by the police. This claim was then backed up by a call for United States and EU officials to hold Museveni accountable and view the election. Furthermore, Wine stated that Museveni forced the country to “carry out elections in the dark” amidst nationwide internet blackouts. The United States did not observe the election as 75% of their accreditation requests were refused by the Ugandan government. The EU repeated similar statements in regards to their monitors. Following the announcement of the election results, police stormed Wine’s house in January to provide “security” according to local police officials. However, Wine’s lawyers have called the action a form of house arrest.

Currently, human rights groups have decried the Museveni government for continuing to harass Wine supporters months after the election has passed. Wine, who reached Ugandan pop-stardom through his protest music, has had the majority of his songs banned on both public and private radio, which the government tightly controls. Nonetheless, Museveni’s actions have stirred up deeper feelings of resentment and cries for more violent forms of resistance from the Ugandan people. 

Overall, the tactics of the Ugandan government should be decried if one advocates peace and stability in Uganda. It is an observable fact that, on average, poorer democracies are more stable and peaceful than poorer autocracies. Thus, when we consider Museveni’s history of holding onto power through hotly contested elections, and his more recently documented trend of using force to shut down political opponents, it is no wonder that we begin to see the rise of militant groups with strong anti-government ideology.

The phrase “violence breeds violence” is often said but in the case of Museveni we can see this rings true. Years of ignoring his people’s cries for change have resulted in cries that are so powerful (and potentially violent) that the government could no longer ignore them. This resulted in government crackdowns that were met with more staunch political resistance, and the cycle ultimately reached the point of Monday’s headline. While the conclusion that Museveni’s government is flawed is certainly one that can be made, there are larger political and ideological hypotheses that can be supported by this case. Overall, the case of democratic liberalism (while certainly contested in recent years) can be backed up. With Uganda rapidly becoming unstable, we wonder what could have been with a government that respected the democratic institutions that its constitution was founded on.