The U.S. Department of State cautioned Pakistan about the risk of imposing sanctions on its missile program suppliers following the recent visit of Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi. The visit concluded on Wednesday, April 24, 2024. In April, both the United Kingdom and the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran after its aggressive attack on Israel. However, these sanctions were relatively limited and did not achieve significant success. During President Raisi’s visit, two bilateral trade agreements were created to increase trade from two billion to ten billion over the next five years. However, the imposition of sanctions, attributed to Iran’s global reputation, could potentially jeopardize these agreements. The timing of the sanctions is unfortunate for Pakistan, given its ongoing economic struggles and attempts to secure financial assistance from allies including Saudi Arabia and the United States, two countries that are rivals of Iran. 

According to Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director at Washington D.C.’s New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, “Those two countries are engaged in their own rivalry and Iran sees itself in ascendancy at the moment due to the situation in the Middle East.” Bokhari also stated that Pakistan is not in a position to get caught amid a conflict between the United States and Iran. Vedant Patel, a spokesperson for the Department’s Principal Deputy warned that “We’re going to continue to disrupt and take action…concerning weapons of mass destruction…wherever they may occur. We advise anyone considering business deals with Iran to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions.”

During President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Pakistan, the two countries attempted to repair their relationship after increased tensions following Iran’s attack on bases of armed groups in Pakistan. This combative attack spurred a chain reaction from Pakistan, when less than 48 hours later they bombed the hideouts of armed groups in the Sistan-Baluchestan province of Iran. Instead of attempting to contain violence and address this conflict through non-combative means, these two acts of violence have harmed both countries, particularly in Iran, where missiles hit a village, resulting in the killing of innocent civilians.

Washington D.C. has been working for decades to limit the money Iran earns from oil and petroleum. Additionally, it has imposed sanctions on hundreds of entities and individuals in Iran, including government officials and the central bank. These measures are aimed at those accused of materially supporting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and armed groups like Hamas in Palestine. After President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit, Pakistan’s Foreign Office said the two countries agreed to cooperate in the energy sector; this encompasses trade in electricity and the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which has been stalled for over a decade due to political instability and international sanctions. Iran claims they have already spent two billion to build the pipeline, but the project has yet to begin from the Pakistani side due to fears of U.S. sanctions. Last month, Pakistan stated that they wanted to ask the United States for a waiver to construct the gas pipeline. Due to Pakistan’s banks being hesitant to direct business with Iranian banks, increasing formal trade and banking activities between the two countries will be slow. Additionally, most business-related activities with Iran trigger sanctions from the United States. 

The complex armed conflict between Pakistan and Iran is significant, and the future of their relationship is reliant on Pakistan’s ability to utilize the limited leverage it has over Iran, thanks to its energy exports such as gas. President Raisi’s visit to Pakistan this past week was monumental, as he was the first Iranian president to travel to a country in South Asia in eight years. The President’s visit suggests the potential for peace and cooperation between these countries in the future, instead of violence. Raisi’s visit, additionally, promised greater security and economic agreement from Iran, hinting at prospects for improved relations with Pakistan.