On Wednesday, the United States and Saudi Arabia reached a deal that would provide American technology and expertise to assist in the development of a Saudi civilian nuclear energy program. This is not the first instance of the U.S. providing support for countries wanting nuclear energy capacity; however, the terms of this agreement raise concerns about Saudi proliferation and domestic enrichment. 

Support in the United States for this agreement comes from those who are eager to tighten connections with the kingdom and its Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The American-Saudi relationship is facing renewed attention amidst the war raging between America, backed by its ally Israel, and Iran. Saudi Arabia is the strongest opposing force to Iran in the region and has been waging a proxy war with the Islamic Republic for several decades. According to The New York Times, as tensions arise between Saudi Arabia and the United States due to the war, this deal may represent reconciliation and a coming together between the two countries. 

There are, however, several individuals hesitant about the deal, within and outside of the U.S. Analysts and even members of Congress are concerned that the transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia could kickstart a nuclear arms race in the Middle East (Al Jazeera). Although the deal is limited to only civilian nuclear energy, it lacks guardrails that would prevent proliferation of nuclear arms. The kingdom will not be subject to the UN International Atomic Energy Agency’s “Additional Protocol,” its most rigorous inspection, which ensures that enrichment and nuclear material are serving solely peaceful purposes (The Guardian). The deal also notably lacks the “gold standard”—a commitment from Saudi Arabia to not seek enrichment or process spent atomic energy—which has become the status quo for any country seeking atomic power. A similar agreement was made when the United States agreed to provide nuclear technology to the United Arab Emirates, which agreed to the gold standard. 

Previous talks regarding Saudi nuclear support have hinged on American insistence that the kingdom normalize relations with Israel in exchange (BBC). This requirement was included at the beginning of talks under the Biden administration, but has been left out of the deal with Trump. The day after the deal was announced, Trump took to social media, stating that the deal is contingent on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords; however, it is uncertain whether this stipulation was included formally in the deal, which has not been released to the public. 

Saudi nuclear power, peaceful or not, shifts the standings of the so-called ‘cold war’ between the kingdom and Iran in the Gulf. According to The Guardian, Saudi Arabia has previously stated that it would require nuclear arms if Iran possessed them. It is no coincidence that the U.S. finally reached a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia only months after beginning a war with Iran in part to prevent Tehran’s development of nuclear weapons. 

A nuclear program in Riyadh changes the entire Gulf geopolitical environment, a concern that U.S. ally Israel has raised. Despite the country having its own unconfirmed nuclear arsenal, former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman stated that Israel must resist Saudi nuclear power with “all their might,” claiming that even a peaceful energy program will inevitably lead to the development of weapons (Al Jazeera). 

This deal is yet another incremental step by the U.S. away from complete alignment with Israel. While Israel remains a key regional ally, cracks are beginning to show between the two countries and their stances on the war with Iran. Warmer relations with Saudi Arabia open the door for Trump to develop a more balanced web of allegiances across the Middle East, especially with his close ally Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.