Imagine a world where, in the midst of a deadly global catastrophe, two “ex-U.S. special forces agents,” invade a foreign country and attempt to capture or kill a demagogue leader with a bounty of $15 million on his head. Stop imagining, because this is much closer to fact than fiction.  Recently, the United States placed a $15 million dollar bounty on the Venezuala’s President and accused him of narcoterrorism.

The tumultuous nature of the relationship between the U.S. and Venezuela is extremely well-known today. Nevertheless, it is not far fetched to say the charges are politically motivated as well. It has been well documented that the U.S., like many other countries, believes that Juan Guaidó is Venezuela’s rightful President, rather than the incumbent President Nicolás Maduro. The disputed results of Venezuala’s 2018 election put a spotlight on electoral corruption in Venezuela. Since then, Maduro has faced immense pressure from other world leaders who have called for his resignation.

Given the above context, it might be easy to agree with Maduro and believe that there was an attempt on his life. His frosty relationship with the U.S. doesn’t do him any favours. In an article by The Washington Post from March 25th, 2019, the Trump administration was reported to have refused to “rule out” military intervention concerning Venezuela as “every option” was on the table. So does this provide credence to Maduro’s claims? Not exactly.

Many have been quick to find similarities between this “invasion” of Venezuela and the failed Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961. While some may argue that this provides evidence of the U.S.’ tendency to get involved in Latin American affairs, I argue that it also acts as a deterrent that might have prevented the United States from invading Venezuela. Since the days of Theodore Roosevelt’s Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine in 1905, the U.S. has assumed the responsibility of preserving order in the Western Hemisphere. Because of this corollary, the U.S. has gotten involved in the affairs of many Latin American nations, often with disastrous results. Some examples of this involves the Dollar Diplomacy’s failure in Nicaragua, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic.

While some of those failures no doubt hurt the U.S.’ morale, it didn’t cause national shame and embarrassment like the failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion did. In one fell swoop, America’s cloak of invincibility and air of superiority was gone, as the nation effectively drove Cuba into communism’s arms. The failure of the invasion also laid the foundation for the Cuban Missile Crisis that would take place a few years later. This colossal failure, coupled with disappointment at the outcome of the Vietnam war, ensured that the U.S. would now be more cautious and hesitant to invade other nations.

Since news of the failed coup spread, both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo denied U.S. involvement in the attack against Maduro. Pompeo even went further, questioning whether the men detained were really even Americans according to The Sun. The men, who Maduro named on Venezuelan national television, claimed to work for a Florida Security Firm whose CEO, retired Green Beret Jordan Goudreau, claimed to lead the coup’s operation. However, it remains a mystery whether this is in fact true, as there is no concrete evidence to support these claims. There is also talk of possible involvement on the part ofGuaidó, though these claims remain unverified.

There is a chance that the U.S. did organise the attack after all. The men still claim that President Trump ordered them to seize control of the Maiquetía “Simón Bolívar” International Airport, Venezuela’s main airport – a claim the U.S. President has repeatedly denied. At the same time, there is a huge possibility that Maduro is just demagoguing. By focusing media attention on this invasion, he can distract his people from falling oil prices, as well as fear and scarcity worsened by the coronavirus outbreak. He could also be trying to increase anti-American sentiments in the country and consolidate power by appealing to his people’s emotions. “They came to Venezuela thinking the people would greet them like some kind of Rambos, with applause,” Maduro said on Wednesday, according to The Guardian. “But the Venezuelan people … captured them, tied them up, and the police had to intervene so there were no acts of violence against them.” He not only paints a picture of Venezuelan hatred for Americans but also portrays himself as a sort of merciful figure whose police force had to intervene to save the mercenaries. Whether he is a saint or a demagogue in disguise, the truth about this matter will remain a mystery for now.