Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of the Republic of Türkiye, announced that he would invite the President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, “any time” for talks to restore relations between the two neighbouring countries. Erdoğan said that Turkey would reciprocate any positive steps from Syria and that Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, and Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani, Prime Minister of Iraq, could contribute to facilitating the conflict. While Syrian officials have repeatedly maintained that any normalization in ties can only commence after Turkey agrees to remove their troops from northwest Syria, Turkey finds Syria’s conditions for normalisation unacceptable, citing various security concerns. Additionally, Erdoğan’s plans to invite Assad for negotiation talks have raised worries among Syrian refugees in Turkey, as they are worried about being sent back to their homeland. These fears run especially rampant due to recent anti-migrant violence in Turkey. So far, Erdoğan has claimed that 670,000 refugees have returned to settlements in northern Syria, and another one million are expected to return in the future.

Erdoğan has stated, “We will extend our invitation [to Assad]; with this invitation, we want to restore Turkey-Syria relations to the same level as in the past. Our invitation may be extended at any time.” Building upon this, he also said, “We have now arrived at a point where if Bashar [al-]Assad takes a step towards improving relations with Turkey, we will also show that approach towards him.” However, Samir Alabdullah at the Harmoon Centre for Contemporary Studies in Istanbul has warned that “[t]here are fears that Erdoğan will make a deal with Assad and send the Syrians back [to Syria].” Additionally, he stated, “There are also those [refugees] who fear they will be stripped of their Turkish citizenship.” Erdoğan’s attempt to rebuild relations with Syria may stem from Turkey’s struggle to support all of the refugees it has received since the inception of the Syrian civil war in March of 2011. In 2022, Ertunc Efe, a Turk living in the Istanbul district of Yakacık brought to light the issue that “Turkey does not have the capacity to handle such a huge burden and this has been much clearer with the recent economic fall.”

In 2022, Turkey’s government reported approximately 3.7 million Syrian refugees living in the country. Of that population, 200,950 have become citizens of Turkey since 2011. The sizable volume of Syrian arrivals has worried some Turks, who wonder if the refugees will ever return home. Many problems have spilled over to Turkey from Syria since 2011, including security threats, the refugee crisis, and the deterioration of Turkey’s relations with several countries, including Russia and Iran. Additionally, the Turkish government is struggling to deal with one of the most serious economic crises the country has faced in decades. Alongside domestic political struggles and economic difficulties, there have been rising reports of violence, abuse, and crime between Turkish and Syrian individuals in communities across Turkey. 

Omar Kadkoy, a migration policy analyst at Ankara-based think tank TEPAV, found that, despite run-ins with violence and crime, the majority of Syrians and Turks live in parallel worlds, in part due to populist politicians who exploit the gap between Syrians and Turks with misinformation and hate speech. A study conducted by Ankara-based polling company ORC in July 2022 found that almost 54% of Turks believe their neighbourhoods have refugee problems. Furthermore, a 2022 survey by Turkey’s Social Democracy Foundation showed that overall, negative feelings towards Syrian refugees in Turkey are rising, with 66% of respondents thinking Syrians should return to their homeland. While opinions among some Turks may vary, Efe claimed that a majority of anti-refugee rhetoric does not stem from xenophobia, but rather cultural divides and recent economic turmoil in Turkey. 

In recent years, Erdoğan has discarded his administration’s initially migrant-friendly view, vowing in 2022 to send 1 million refugees back to northern Syria. This may have been done in light of the 2023 general elections when Turkey’s opposition parties stoked the flames of anti-Syrian sentiment by making the return of Syrian refugees to Syria a key component of their campaigns. Overall, Erdoğan’s change in stance may reflect both the popular opinions of the public and the current strains on the Turkish economy. 

However, many have brought to light that Syria is not ready for the return of refugees. The Syrian Network for Human Rights, a UK-based advocacy group, has asserted that Syria is not safe for the return of millions of refugees from Turkey. Taha Elgazi, a Syrian human rights activist working on refugee issues in Turkey, believes that the blame for economic turbulence in Turkey, along with other issues, cannot fall completely on Syrian refugees. Prematurely sending refugees back to Syria for issues that they may not be fully at fault for could compromise the safety and well-being of displaced Syrians. Although Erdoğan has somewhat hardened his stance on migrants in recent years, he must balance the needs of Turkey with the needs of the migrants who, at one point, Erdoğan welcomed into Turkey and promised refuge. As Syrian displacement persists, host countries and supporters must identify solutions that can prevent long-term development and security consequences of the refugee crisis at hand.

To reduce conflict associated with Turkey-Syria relations, other peaceful solutions should accompany Erdoğan’s efforts at reconciliation. The Brookings Institution, a nonprofit organization in Washington, D.C. that aims to improve policy and governance, suggests several peaceful, multilateral solutions that may relieve current tensions. Firstly, a transition from short-term funding cycles reliant on international N.G.O.’s to long-term funding is necessary. This shift will provide economic support to refugee-hosting countries like Turkey, helping them cope with the humanitarian crisis caused by Syria’s conflict. Secondly, stimulating economic growth will be hugely beneficial, and may be accomplished through trade concessions extended to Turkey by Western countries. This effort may incentivize business growth and job creation, which would be particularly helpful in sectors with high levels of refugee employment. Thirdly, improving economic and security conditions in Syria, in addition to ensuring secure housing, will be critical if additional refugees are to return in the future. Overall, implementing these strategies, among others, could lead to a more sustainable resolution of the current crisis in addition to long-term stability in the region.