Trump’s Winning Has Increased Uncertainty In The United States And The World

On November 6th, Republican candidate Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election with 279 to 223 electoral votes, marking his return to the White House after the conclusion of his first term in 2021. In addition to this victory, the Republicans also secured majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This means Trump’s second term as president will come with substantial power, as his policies are likely to receive unimpeded support from the Congress and a Supreme Court dominated by conservative judges. Consequently, he will be able to implement his policy smoothly and with minimal opposition. Whether it is Trump’s unpredictable and unconventional approach, or his isolationist foreign policy, the international community broadly expresses concern about his upcoming administration, and the world is bracing for the potential impacts of “Trump 2.0.”

At the forefront of concerns is the increasingly precarious fate of Ukraine which remains struggling in the turmoil of Russia’s military aggression. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW Kiel), since February 2022, the Biden administration has pledged over $50 billion in military aid to Ukraine, making the U.S. the largest contributor in supporting Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s slow but persistent territorial encroaching. However, Trump’s potential approach to this issue remains a major uncertainty. During his campaign, he repeatedly expressed to reduce or halt U.S. aid to Ukraine, arguing that assistance drains American resources and does not align with U.S. national interests. He even promised to “end the war swiftly,” though the details remain unclear. Adding to this uncertainty is Trump’s Vice President-elect, J.D. Vance, who advocates for shifting Washington’s focus from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, identifying China as the “real issue” requiring attention. Such a potential redirection of U.S. priorities could leave Ukraine in a vulnerable and dangerous position, and force European allies to assume greater responsibility in countering Russian aggression.

During his first presidency, Trump frequently criticized NATO calling it “obsolete.” On December 8th, in an interview with Fox News, he even threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, characterizing European countries as “welfare clients” under American military protection. These rhetoric has alarmed European allies, who have long relied on the U.S. for security guarantees within NATO’s framework. Trump’s return to power has reignited fears that he may follow through on these threats, weakening NATO’s cohesion and effectiveness. If Trump decides to reduce or completely withdraw U.S. military support for Ukraine, it could strain its relations with European nations, who would bear greater defense responsibilities in the face of a belligerent Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron recently emphasized at the European Political Community meeting that Europe “cannot always rely on the United States” and must seize its own strategic autonomy. This sentiment reflects a growing awareness among European leaders that Trump’s policies may gradually diminish the U.S. military presence in Europe. As a vital alliance against Russian aggression, NATO has begun to show signs of fracturing, and fundamentally altering the balance of power in the region.

In contrast, Trump and his campaign team have announced plans to provide increased and dedicated support to Israel, particularly in its conflicts with Palestinian and Arab groups. During his first term, Trump unveiled the “Trump Peace Plan,” which sought to normalize relations between Israel and Arab nations. However, the plan was widely criticized for biasing toward Israel on sensitive historical and territorial disputes while disregarding the geopolitical interests and historical grievances of Palestinians and the other Arab states. It proposed a demilitarized Palestine along with the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over contested areas such as the Golan Heights and the settlements in the West Bank, as well as the relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. These moves were appreciated by Israel but condemned by many for undermining the prospects of a two-state solution. Trump’s steadfast support for Israel is expected to continue during his “2.0 presidency,” as his administration has pledged additional military and political support to Israel. This stance is likely to exacerbate tensions in the Middle East and further alienate Arab nations, especially amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts, which continue to claim numerous civilian casualties daily.

Meanwhile, a new crisis in the Golan Heights has added further complexity to the already volatile Middle East. Recently, the Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by the terrorist organization Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Exploiting this power vacuum, Israel deployed a significant number of troops to seize and control outposts along the Syrian border within the Golan Heights buffer zone. This strategically important plateau in southwestern Syria, rich in water resources, has been internationally recognized as Syrian territory since the country’s independence in 1944. However, much of the area has been under Israeli occupation since the Six-Day War in 1967 and was unilaterally annexed by Israel in 1981. This marks the first time since the 1974 ceasefire that Israel has crossed the ceasefire line to further encroach on the demilitarized zone. On November 9th, Israeli officials described this move as a “temporary security measure,” but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later declared that “The Golan Heights will forever be an integral part of Israel,” also announcing plans to double the population of settlements in the region. This move has drawn sharp international criticism. According to The Guardian, Turkey condemned Israel’s actions as an attempt to “expand its borders” and warned that it could “seriously undermine” efforts to stabilize Syria.

Trump’s role in this issue is significant. In 2019, during his first presidency, the U.S. formally recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, breaking with decades of Washington’s policy. In gratitude, Netanyahu named an Israeli settlement “Trump Heights.” To date, the U.S. remains the only country, besides Israel, to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. If Trump continues to adopt a highly supportive stance toward Israel in his second term, it could fuel anti-American sentiments among extremist groups in Syria, providing them with new pretexts for hostility. This could, in turn, embolden a new wave of radical ideologies, placing additional strain on global counterterrorism efforts.

While Trump’s “America First” policies may bring certain benefits to the U.S., such as reducing foreign aid expenditures and prioritizing national interests, they also introduce substantial global uncertainties. His approaches to Ukraine and Israel, in particular, are likely to reshape international alliances and force countries to reassess their strategies for ensuring security and stability. As Trump’s second presidency begins to unfold, it remains uncertain whether his leadership will fulfill his promise of a more stable world with ceasing conflicts, or leave a legacy of heightened crises.

 

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