Trump’s Return To The White House: Implications For The Israel-Hamas War And Middle East Stability

For the second time, Donald Trump has been elected as U.S. president. During his first four years, Trump strengthened Israel’s presence in the region by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and declaring Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Although he presented a peace plan through the Abraham Accords, many Palestinians criticized it for favoring Israel and failing to address Palestinian statehood, limiting the deal’s success. Based on the actions of his first term, Trump is likely to play a huge role in the Middle East, most prominently, in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. The region has undergone major shifts since Trump was last in office, and new policies could potentially make a large impact and dramatically alter the course of the war.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory, stating, “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory.” Considering that Trump is known to be the most pro-Israel president, according to PBS, concerns have arisen that his stance will embolden Netanyahu to further pursue aggressive foreign and domestic policies. As Biden’s criticisms over Israel’s failure to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza have heightened in the past months, Jewish Israelis have begun to view Trump as someone who will be a better option for Israel’s interests.

Trump’s support for Israel has sparked fears among Palestinians of exacerbated instability, including fears of an increase of settlements in the West Bank, a problem that was overlooked in his first term, and Israeli resettlement in Gaza. One Palestinian told Al-Jazeera, “Trump and Netanyahu are an evil alliance against the Palestinians and our fate will be very difficult, not only in the fateful issues but also in our daily concern.” Even still, many Palestinians have expressed concern that, regardless of who sits in the White House, U.S. foreign policy will remain the same, and Israel will continue to be favored at the expense of citizens in Gaza and the West Bank.

Despite expressing a desire to end the war, the way in which Trump will go about attaining this goal will have dire implications. Although Trump has urged Israel to “finish the job” and eliminate Hamas, both he and Netanyahu have yet to articulate clear strategies for ending the war. Due to Trump’s extreme unpredictability and political support for Israel, some analysts, such as Khaled Elgindy from Washington’s Middle East Institute, have argued that he would give Netanyahu “wide latitude to continue his approach based on his timetable and his priorities indefinitely.” This strategy from Trump would pose a substantial risk for the U.S. being drawn into a broader conflict with other Middle Eastern countries such as Iran.

With the outcome of the election now decided, it will be imperative that citizens in both the U.S. and Israel continue to advocate for a ceasefire, the return of the hostages, and an end to Palestinian suffering both in Gaza and the West Bank. Since President Biden is still in charge, more must be done to put an end to the war before Trump’s inauguration in January in order to prevent the conflict from widening. To do this, more pressure must be applied against Israel by the U.S. through an arms embargo and other diplomatic measures to ensure de-escalation commences.

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