On November 11th, leaders from across the Arab and Islamic world convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for their yearly summit to discuss the escalating conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. This high-level meeting aimed to unify regional stances and send a clear message to the new president-elect Donald Trump regarding key Middle Eastern issues. These included regional security and the future of Palestinian statehood. Gulf Arab nations tend to believe that Trump could become a stabilising force in the region, reflecting the complex dynamics surrounding Trump’s return to power. 

For instance, UAE business leader Khalaf al-Habtoor highlighted that Trump’s return could be seen as a positive force. He emphasises that Trump’s focus on reinforcing alliances and combating extremism aligns with the security priorities of many Middle Eastern countries. On another hand, former Israeli intelligence officer Joshua Steinrich noted that Trump’s return is more than likely going to give Israel a freer hand to strike targets in Iran. It’s important to note that these targets, including oil and nuclear facilities, were supposedly off-limits under the Biden administration. Therefore, his return to power is expected to intensify efforts to limit Iran’s influence. With all this in mind, Anna Jacobs from the International Crisis Group pointed out that the summit provided an opportunity for leaders to convey their expectations about future US engagement. 

While Trump’s policies offered moments of strategic engagement, the potential for the return of  hawkish measures raises concerns. Endorsing aggressive tactics, like empowering unilateral strikes on Iran, risks further destabilising the region. Peace-building in the region requires much more than military posturing and strategic alliances; it demands comprehensive approaches that address the issue at its core and prioritise humanitarian needs instead of power strategies. It’s important to note that the summit in Riyadh could be fruitful if it continues to promote inclusive strategies in its alliance with Trump. 

It’s important to bear in mind that the Middle East has suffered significant changes since Donald Trump’s last term in office. During Trump’s presidency his aggressive stance on Iran, highlighted by the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, was met with satisfaction by Gulf Arab states. However, it still fuelled tensions in the region. Likewise, his term was characterised by the hardening of US-Israel ties as Washington endorsed Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

It was not all negative, however, as the 2020 Abraham Accords saw the UAE, Bahrain, and others normalise their relations with Israel.  Currently, the region faces a very different landscape marked by the intense and ongoing conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah, along with confrontations with Iran. Another major shift is the new Chinese relationship with Saudi Arabia and Iran, which brought an end to years of hostility. These evolving dynamics create uncertainty about how Trump’s return might realign alliances and provoke new tensions. 

The Riyadh summit underscores shifting dynamics in the Middle East, where the return of Trump might reignite aggressive policies, particularly towards Iran. However, peace and security in the region depend on whether regional leaders prize inclusive diplomacy over military escalation,  and whether they can ensure stability and address humanitarian concerns over the long term.