Trump’s Incoming Ukraine Envoy Calls For Renewed ‘Maximum Pressure’ On Iran

During an Iranian opposition event in Paris last Saturday, Keith Kellogg, Trump’s pick for special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, pushed for renewed “maximum pressure” towards Iran, which he argued would spread democratic values and reduce extremism in the Middle East. Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general in the United States Army, was also the National Security Advisor to former Vice President Mike Pence from 2018 to 2021.

The event was held by The National Council of Resistance of Iran, an Iranian opposition group based in Paris. Based on their mission and platform on their website, they seek “an end to religious dictatorship,” as well as a desire to promote “a free and democratic Iran.”

Kellogg addressed the audience saying, “These pressures are not just kinetic, just not military force, but they must be economic as well.” Kellogg emphasized the current weakness of Iran, urging that no other time would be as advantageous as right now.

The statement and the event as a whole were not met well by the Iranian government. The event is believed to have hosted the M.K.O., or Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization, which the Iranian government claims is an “anti-Iran terrorist group.” Iran’s foreign ministry claimed that “the hosting of a terrorist group by France is a clear example of support for terrorism and a violation of the French government’s international legal obligation to combat terrorism.”

Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy is not a recent development; it has been his strategy for relations with Iran for years. During his first term, he withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (J.C.P.O.A.), also known as the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which provided Iran with sanctions relief in exchange for limiting their nuclear program. According to the U.S.-based Arms Control Association, the multilateral agreement “successfully rolled back Iran’s nuclear capabilities,” easing tensions between Iran and much of the world. In 2018, the Trump administration replaced the J.C.P.O.A. with tighter sanctions on Iran—ones that had previously been loosened by the agreement. Iran, in response, began to breach the J.C.P.O.A. limits. The tensions that had been progressively reducing between the U.S. and Iran were back, as this “maximum pressure” approach failed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table or change their behavior. The nuclear capacity of Iran is a concern among the other nations part of the J.C.P.O.A., with fear that Iranian proliferation developments are accelerating.  

Since Kellogg’s statement was made by a future executive under the incoming Trump administration, it is likely a reflection of the president’s upcoming policies concerning Iran. Kellogg’s call for a renewed “maximum pressure” policy broadly simplifies the complexities of international diplomacy, and seems to be an attempt to coerce Iran into submission. To reinstate “maximum pressure” seems like an aggressive stance, considering the international delicacy of the situation; such a situation requires the integration of diplomatic engagement, multilateral cooperation, and a prioritization of human rights in American international policy. There will be larger consequences if the “pressure” applied is brash, and it most likely will alter relations with the rest of the Middle East.

The “maximum pressure” approach caused heightened tensions during Trump’s first term. It will be interesting to see how President Trump plans to diplomatically engage with Iran in his second term. Trump is no stranger to making controversial statements on international policy, and his future policy choices are sure to spark further controversy and debate. Given the complexities of the situation with Iran, a strategic balance is required—and the Trump administration’s ability to achieve this will undeniably shape the future of U.S.-Iran and U.S.-Middle East relations.  

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