Truce between Lebanon-Israeli conflict: A fragile ceasefire

At 4:00 am local time on November 27, the Lebanon-Israeli ceasefire agreement officially came into effect. In a statement issued through his spokesman, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he hoped the agreement would end the violence, destruction and suffering experienced by the people of both countries. However, when the second day after the ceasefire agreement came into effect, the Israel Defense Forces immediately attacked ground targets in Southern Lebanon, causing the Lebanese government forces to immediately retaliate on December 2. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, and the international community has expressed great concern about the effectiveness of the fragile ceasefire.

The Associated Press reported that Israel has been launching daily attacks on Lebanon since the ceasefire agreement took effect, but it has been vague about what it called “violations of the ceasefire agreement by Hezbollah.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a government meeting on December 3 that the Israeli forces will “retaliate against any violation of the ceasefire agreement”. Both the United States and France have warned Israel that it is violating the ceasefire terms, according to CNN. The Guardian also commented that only five days after the ceasefire was declared, full-scale combat between Hezbollah and Israel resumed. Jack Lew, the US ambassador to Israel, warned Israel not to “make a fuss” about maintaining a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, The Times of Israel reported Saturday. It also called on the Lebanese government to keep its own people in check and to avoid provoking Israel into further action. Matthew Miller, a US State Department spokesman, said the ceasefire had not broken down and was still in force. The United States is considering a new mechanism to ensure that the ceasefire is actually enforced.

Ten days have passed since the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire came into effect, and the expected peaceful results have not been seen. Instead, Israel launched its ever-harshly attacks on Lebanon. PM Netanyahu said the ceasefire would allow Israel to focus on the Iranian threat, this means that Israel seems to view it as a stalling tactic, which makes the effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement even more questionable. In addition, a ceasefire would require Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon and agree to the deployment of Lebanese government forces in the area, which has long been a Hezbollah stronghold, potentially destabilizing the region in the future.

Since the conflict, more than a million people are still displaced in Lebanon, and about 50,000 Israeli residents evacuated from the north. On November 26, the Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that 3,823 people had been killed, and 15,859 injured in the current round. Although the parties have not officially disclosed the full contents of the ceasefire agreement, relevant reports disclosed by the Israeli media show that the agreement include an initial ceasefire between the two sides for 60 days, when Hezbollah guerilla and Israeli troops withdraw, UN peacekeepers and Lebanese government forces will enter southern Lebanon. In addition, the United States will lead the establishment of a multi-party monitoring mechanism involving the United States, France, and the UNIFIL to jointly supervise the ceasefire.

The ceasefire agreement represents a possible respite for the Lebanese people, who have been facing Israeli attacks for a year, and an opportunity for the Israeli army to regroup. Although there is no actual ceasefire, the parties to the conflict have taken a step towards a political solution end the continuing cycle of violence.

 

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