The Withered Rose Of Damascus: Impact Of Syria’s Second Civil War

According to R.F.I., the Syrian military issued a statement on 5 December 2024, stating that opposition armed forces had entered the central Syrian city of Hama within the past few hours. The Syrian military announced that it would retaliate. The leader of the “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” (H.T.S.), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who launched this rebellion, explicitly stated in an interview with CNN: “Our goal is to overthrow this regime, and we have the right to use all available means to achieve this.”

According to reports from Reuters and The New York Times on Friday, 6 December 2024, Syrian opposition armed forces led by the H.T.S. declared that they had advanced to the city of Homs “at lightning speed” and issued a “final” call for government forces to lay down their weapons and to surrender. The H.T.S. subsequently wrote on the social media platform Telegram: “Our forces have ‘liberated’ the last village in the outskirts of Homs and have now reached the city walls of Homs.”

Historically, Syria has served as a critical trade crossroads between Asia and Europe. The chaos of its civil war has not only affected Syria itself but has also influenced neighboring countries and the broader Middle East region. The instability in Syria’s political landscape stems from complex and varied causes. These include surface-level factors like the region’s political systems and social conflicts, as well as deeper-rooted historical, cultural, and religious influences. Additionally, competition over resources such as oil and water and conflicts between major powers further exacerbate the situation. During its governance, the Al-Assad regime faced opposition from domestic dissenters, threats from Turkiye and U.S.-backed Kurdish militias, and challenges from terrorist organizations such as ISIS.

Since 2020, the Syrian civil war has been in a state of stalemate due to mediation efforts by Russia and Turkiye. This recent attack marks the resumption of the Syrian civil war. This sudden development reveals the deep political and social fractures caused by years of civil war in the Middle East, once again highlighting the complexity of the region’s situation.

Following the outbreak of Syria’s second civil war, many countries have called for peace, with some engaging in urgent diplomatic mediation. However, surface appearances are deceiving. In reality, the complexity of the Syrian situation far exceeds external perceptions. The extraordinary chaos of this civil war stems from intense struggles occurring on three levels: internal, regional, and international.

Syria faces internal issues such as the minority Alawite sect ruling over the Sunni majority and the fragmentation of various anti-government forces. Previously, these anti-government factions frequently engaged in armed conflict due to religious and interest-based disputes, indirectly alleviating pressure on the Al-Assad regime. However, in this instance, the major anti-government forces within Syria have unexpectedly set aside their past grievances and united against the Al-Assad regime, placing Syrian government forces at a sudden disadvantage in this conflict. The unification of these ideologically diverse armed groups is influenced by external forces mediating their differences.

The Syrian opposition forces have employed heavy weaponry, including armored vehicles and tanks, as well as advanced equipment like drones and infrared night vision goggles. Evidently, they have received substantial external support. But who provided this support? Sun Degang, an assistant director at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, commented that apart from Turkiye, a recognized military power in the Middle East actively intervening in Syria, Sunni Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Jordan, and Qatar are also suspected of providing covert military aid. Consequently, the conflict between Sunni and Alawite (Shiite) factions has expanded from within Syria to encompass the entire Middle East. In other words, Sunni Middle Eastern countries, including Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, are covertly supporting Sunni opposition forces in Syria to weaken Shiite forces led by Iran across the region.

The United States has consistently supported Kurdish armed groups in Syria, while Russia, despite being deeply entangled in the Ukraine war and facing significant domestic challenges, continues to maintain its military presence in the Middle East through its bases in Syria. Furthermore, the longstanding territorial dispute between Israel and Syria over the Golan Heights persists. Over the past decade, Israel has conducted continuous airstrikes against Syrian government forces. Thus, from an international perspective, the U.S., Israel, and Russia all bear undeniable responsibility for the current Syrian crisis.

According to CNN, the U.S. State Department and the Russian Embassy in Syria issued statements urging their citizens to leave Syria while commercial routes out of Damascus are still available. This indicates that Syria has become a “chessboard” for great-power rivalry. The U.S., Russia, Iran, and Turkiye are all engaged in fierce competition within Syria. The resumption of the Syrian civil war could trigger deeper strategic confrontations among these major powers, further complicating the situation in the Middle East. The interlinking dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and tensions between Iran and Israel add to the instability.

For Israel, Syria’s second civil war and the Sunni-Shiite rivalry across the Middle East present an opportunity to “watch the tigers fight from a hill” and potentially reshape the new order in the region. However, the already war-weary populations of Gaza, Lebanon, and Israel, battered by wars between Israel and Hamas as well as Israel and Hezbollah, face an even more uncertain future.

Despite the Al-Assad regime’s numerous enemies within Syria and the broader region and its history of committing crimes against humanity, its fall is not universally welcomed. H.T.S. makes it hard to believe in its ability to bring democracy and freedom to the Syrian people. On Telegram, H.T.S. fighters have frequently posted videos depicting brutal abuses and executions of Syrian government forces personnel and civilians. This presents a security paradox for The West, Arab countries, and Israel. While they all seek to diminish Iran’s influence in Syria, none are willing to see a radical Islamic regime, born from a terrorist organization, replace Al-Assad.

On 6 December 2024, U.N. World Food Program Emergency spokesperson Samer Abdel-Jaber stated that over 280,000 people had been displaced in northwest Syria since the escalation began on 27 November 2024. He warned that if the situation continues to deteriorate, up to 1.5 million people could be displaced. The World Food Program and its partners are striving to provide assistance to those affected by the conflict.

The resurgence of the Syrian civil war has had profound and complex impacts on the Middle East. It has further entangled the region in the geopolitical games between Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran, rendering the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement increasingly fragile and unpredictable. For the Middle East as a whole, prolonged or escalating conflict in Syria will have increasingly significant repercussions.

The international community should intensify humanitarian aid efforts to help the Syrian people through this crisis. Moreover, strengthening the coordination capabilities of regional organizations such as the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (O.I.C.) and promoting regional economic cooperation to alleviate tensions are responsibilities the international community must assume.

As H.T.S. appears poised to control all of Syria, the question remains whether it will secularize and genuinely address the needs of the Syrian people or continue its legacy of terrorism and radical Islamism. Only time and the collective efforts of the Syrian people will reveal the answer.

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