The UK Joins the US in Urging its Nationals to Leave Ukraine Amid Growing Concerns Around a Russian Invasion

On February 11th, the U.K. government joined the U.S. in calling for all its nationals to leave Ukraine immediately. In a press release, the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office also advised against all travel to Ukraine. This comes as the U.S. warns that Russia could invade Ukraine ‘at any time.’ According to the Financial Times, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that a Russian invasion is ‘likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks’ followed by a ‘subsequent ground invasion.’ The outbreak of an invasion would make an evacuation of foreign nationals very difficult, and the U.S. and U.K. are joined by several countries in urging their nationals to leave Ukraine: Latvia, Norway, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea have made similar recommendations and are likely to be joined by more countries in the coming days.

The Washington Post reported that Russia has assembled 130,000 troops at the Ukrainian border and is carrying out military activities which are causing concern amongst analysts. These activities include naval exercises off the coast of Ukraine and training operations in Belarus. Tensions have been rising since late 2021 when Russia began to gather troops at the border. There was a brief lull in the last week of December when it was reported that Russia had withdrawn 10,000 troops. But, this did not signify a credible step towards de-escalation.

Russia maintains that it does not plan to invade Ukraine, and accuses the U.S. of stirring up hysteria and panic. Deputy United Nations Ambassador for Russia Dmitry Polyanskiy claimed that the U.S. is leading a ‘panic campaign,’ and Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova added that the ‘hysteria of the White House is more revealing than ever.’ But, AP News reported that the U.S. has gathered intelligence suggesting that Russia does intend to launch an invasion. The certainty of the intelligence is unknown, but it suggests a possible start date of February 16th.

The tensions between Russia and Ukraine are longstanding. It is widely recognised that one of the major sources of tension is the potential expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to include Ukraine. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated ‘it’s absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO.’ It appears unlikely that NATO will agree to membership restrictions to appease Russia. On January 27th, NATO asserted that ‘Every sovereign nation has the right to choose its own security arrangements.’

Despite protests from Russia that the threat of military action in Ukraine has been overemphasized, a potential invasion remains plausible as long as there is significant military activity on the Russian border with Ukraine. Over the next few days, discussions are expected to take place between Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, and U.S. President Joe Biden. These discussions may be the last chance to prevent military action in Ukraine, and all parties must do all they can to resolve the conflict through peaceful and diplomatic means.

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