Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed fired his army chief, head of intelligence, and foreign minister on Sunday, following a five day military operation after heightened levels of violence in the northern Tigray region. The Abiy administration accused the formerly reigning Tigrayan party of Ethiopia of attacking a defence post and attempting to steal military weapons and equipment. The military operation consisted of airstrikes, invasion of troops, and lines of communication including telephone and internet services in the northernmost region of Ethiopia, Tigray. Reports of heavy shelling, an increase of troops, and an official six-month state of emergency quickly escalated this conflict to “an unexpected war,” according to Ethiopian army deputy chief. Casualties include at least six deaths and 6o wounded, specifically along the Tigray border. Doctors Without Borders reports that nearly 100 government soldiers have been treated for gunshot wounds.

This long-standing feud between the federal government and the leadership party of Tigray stem from Ethiopia’s increasing economic and social issues, mixed with an unstable democratic transition. Abiy came to power 2018 after Tigrayan leaders had ruled Ethiopia for decades. Tigrayan leaders accused Abiy of corruption and of unfair treatment following his win. “I think when it comes to military mobilization, it’s not child’s play. It can trigger all-out war… what they are doing is playing with fire… a small spark can ignite the whole region. So I think we are on the alert and I can assure you we are capable of defending ourselves,” Wondimu Asamnew, the senior official of TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) warned. 

In a televised event, Prime Minister Abiy accused leaders of Tigray of “criminal hubris and intransigence,” ignoring the advice of the United Nations and the U.S. to step down in order to mitigate further conflict. In opposition, President of the Tigray region, Debretsion Gebremichael, told reporters that Tigray was “in position to defend (itself) from enemies” and the population is “ready to be martyrs.” However, lecturer on governance and migration at the European University Institute, Mehari Taddele Maru, warned, “nothing good will come out from this war for any side, this is a transition gone wrong.” The strained relationship hit a high after Abiy announced the delay of all elections due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Tigray continued to hold regional elections, which the federal government noted as illegal and an undermining of authority. 

It is imperative that this conflict be de-escalated in order to prevent Ethiopia’s population, the second largest in Africa, from being violently displaced. Additionally, this conflict has caused further stress on the healthcare system due to military wounds and COVID-19 cases. Since Abiy’s appointment in 2018, tensions between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the region’s primary political party, and the federal government have only worsened.  

Although Abiy received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his improvement of Ethiopia’s political and economic state, which centred on the vision of a unified Ethiopia, he has been criticized for excluding certain groups from important economic and political processes. In 2019, he launched the Prosperity Party, which consisted of members of the former ruling coalition; however, this Party excluded the Tigray and other ethnic groups, increasing tensions. Over the past year, Abiy has been further criticized for detaining opposition leaders and allowing his security officers to murder hundreds of people from various ethnic groups due to their oppositional views. Reports also stated that the Abiy administration frequently limits internet access and arrests journalists who oppose him. 

The approximate 1, 600,000 people in Tigray receiving food aid and other forms of support are increasingly at risk of forced displacement, violence, and crumbling infrastructure due to the ongoing conflict. The rising tensions between the Tigrayan party and the Abiy administration are pushing Ethiopia’s stability to a dangerous edge. There is a strong need for a peace agreement, or some form of peaceful negotiations be made amongst the two groups, before there are long-lasting consequences.