This Friday marks the beginning of the voting process for Russia’s first presidential election since 2018, which will likely result in a staggering win for current president Vladimir Putin. It is the first presidential election in Russia to utilize online and multi-day voting, yet there is minimal hope for a free and fair election. With all legitimate opposition leaders exiled or imprisoned, the ballot will entirely contain candidates from Kremlin-friendly parties, who have little chance of garnering significant support. As the war in Ukraine remains at the forefront of post-2022 Russian policy, it will take on a significant role in the election, with Putin struggling to maintain support for the war, whilst also trying to avoid exacerbating Russian fatigue.
Adam Lenton, a professor at Wake Forest University, notes that “what will be of interest is not the result [of the election] itself, but how the result is produced during wartime conditions.” The recent war has placed pressure on the Kremlin to not only monitor and suppress discontent but to also ensure they portray a strong image in the face of a drawn-out war. This election serves as an opportunity for a show of power by Putin at a moment of national anti-war protests and mourning for deceased opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny’s widow, commented in a piece for the Washington Post that the rejection of election results by the West would be an “important signal to civil society in Russia and the elites still loyal to Putin, as well as to the world, that Russia is ruled not by a president recognized by all, but by someone who is despised and publicly condemned.”
Even with growing discontent in Russia, there will likely be little impact on the engineered election results. State control of the media and Russian nationalism in the face of war has influenced many voters, and polls show a majority of Russians approve Putin’s leadership. Yet, foreign support for dissent may embolden those who desire an alternative. Boris Nadezdhin’s candidacy, which at one point reached 7% of support in polls, indicates that there is a substantial bloc of citizens who are interested in a liberal Russia without Putin. While Nadezdhin’s campaign was derailed, the growing anti-war camp, alongside those who desire a more democratic Russia, may provide a basis for an anti-Putin movement. The anticipated protests of Navalny supporters on Sunday may demonstrate the very real presence of opposition within Russia and the subsequent role it may play in this election.
Currently, citizens over the age of 18, who are not in prison for criminal activity, are eligible to vote in this presidential election. There are over 110 million eligible voters within Russia and Russia-occupied Ukraine, and nearly 2 million eligible voters abroad. While the 2018 election garnered a 67.5% participation rate, forced votes and ballot stuffing contributed to such a high turnout. This year’s election will likely face the same manipulation, and the online voting system is anticipated to experience government intervention to ensure a near 80% turnout rate. Widespread outrage across Russia due to the recent death of Navalny, coupled with the war in Ukraine, has pushed Putin to desire nothing less than an artificially inflated turnout and a sizable lead as a grab for legitimacy. The other candidates featured on the ballot include Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party, Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party. All of the aforementioned candidates support the Kremlin’s policies, including the war in Ukraine, and provide little diversity.
As the country prepares for the election, it is important to recognize the lasting impact of Putin’s hold on Russian politics and the subsequent impact this election will have on the next six years. Now is the time for foreign nations to embrace the dissident voices in Russian politics, and refuse to give Putin the legitimacy he is attempting to gain by way of a faux electoral process. As the war in Ukraine rages, the dissatisfaction of Russian citizens could play a large role in the possibility of future peace. This election may provide a means to express their discontent in the face of unfair elections and an unsustainable war.
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