The Possible Consequences Of The Explosion Of The Iranian Nuclear Centrifuge

The recent explosion of the Iranian nuclear centrifuge has produced rumours worldwide about the possible perpetrators and the consequences of the event. Many observes of the Iranian foreign policy claim the explosion was generated by the American and the Israeli governments. While nothing has been confirmed yet by either sides, it left the Iranian nuclear programme in ruins. American-Israeli relations are likely to enter a new and riskier chapter.

Certain theories claim that the explosion was the result of a foreign led cyber-attack, but it is also a common belief that the bomb was planted on purpose with the help of the same foreign powers. Even though neither theory is confirmed, the analysis of the possible consequences has already started.  According to some intelligence officials, it would take around 2 years for the Iranian government to restore the pre-explosion phase of the nuclear programme. Other experts, for example Brian H. Hock, the U.S. State Department’s special convoy for Iran fears that “timidity and weakness invites more Iranian aggression” which could lead to the escalation of conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli coalition. Other international security experts argue that the US-Irani relationship will not change until the American presidential elections as the Irani government believes that the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, will win against the incumbent Trump and there will be space to restore the previous agreement made with President Obama.

This argument raises the question of how the Iranians will possibly react if Donald Trump maintains his role as president. President Trump is known for his new approach to the US-Iran relations which could have serious consequences. As some experts pointed out, it is likely that Iran will carry out its nuclear development more covertly in the future, raising difficulties to the detection of nuclear activities.

5 years ago, Barack Obama achieved to come to written agreement with Iran in terms of nuclear developments after 20 months of negotiations. Even though the deal was not exhaustive, but it did limit many of Iran’s nuclear moves. President Trump, however, rejected the deal in 2018, claiming that Iran had already broken it. The relationship of the 2 countries have worsened since then. In January 2020, the US led assassination of Qassim Soleimani, an important Iranian commander, stirred up anger in the country among thousands of citizens. Since then, several headlines have continued to report on the ongoing conflicts between the two states. Most recently among these is the rocket attacks of the US Embassy in Baghdad, which were possibly perpetrated by Iranian supported troops.

If struggles do not get resolved after the American presidential election, serious conflicts could emerge between the states of the Middle East, including Israel as well as the United States and could further destabilize the region. History has proven that the destabilization of the Middle East has had significant influences on other regions as well. Europe has been divided by the 2015 refugee crisis caused by the Syrian civil war, providing national governments with a useful tool to achieve their own domestic political aims. Thus, the explosion of this Iranian nuclear centrifuge could result in new dynamics in local and world politics affecting many layers and areas of society.