Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, stated on Thursday, July 3, that the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (G.E.R.D.), a hydroelectric dam, has been completed. According to M.S.N., the dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of energy—double Ethiopia’s current output. According to The National, G.E.R.D. began in 2011, and it was controversial from the beginning. 

Abiy states, “Ethiopia’s main interest is to bring light to 60% of the population who is suffering in darkness, to save the labour of our mothers who are carrying wood on their back in order to get energy” (Reuters 2022). Abiy has reiterated since the beginning of the project that the dam is for mutual benefit for all countries. He stated, “We believe in shared progress, shared energy, and shared water” (B.B.C. 2025). 

Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia’s border-neighbors, have been the most critical of the dam. According to M.S.N. and B.B.C., Egypt has voiced concerns about the dam causing water shortages. With an already limited water supply that is reliant on the Nile, a dam introduction could be devastating. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry has argued “that a 2% reduction in water from the Nile could result in the loss of 200,000 acres of irrigated land” (B.B.C. 2023). However, there has been no issue since the power turned on in 2022 because of unprecedented rainfall in Ethiopia since 2023—which falls down the Nile through Egypt. However, Ethiopia experiences chronic droughts, including one from 2019-2025 (ReliefWeb). If there is a prolonged drought with limited rainfall, Egypt is sure to face water shortages. However, the dam is not fully to blame—climate change is involved, too. According to the Climate Change Knowledge Portal, out of natural disasters from 1980-2020, 46.9% of them were floods and 11.5% of them were droughts. It is possible that a drought will affect Egypt, but from precedent, it seems that the flooding of Ethiopia is keeping their waterway sustained. 

However, in times of drought, Egypt is concerned that Ethiopia will utilize the water reservoir against them, using the water to generate energy instead of flow downstream. According to the B.B.C., Mohammed Basheer of the University of Toronto states, “There is no agreement on how G[E.R.D.] should be managed during and following periods of drought…Ethiopia might adopt an approach that maximizes electricity generation following droughts, by first recovering storage, which would be unfavourable for Egypt.”

According to English Ahram, in March 2015, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah Al Sisi, former Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir, and former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn signed the G.E.R.D. Declaration of Principles. The Declaration of Principles included “A ten-point agreement based on international law pertaining to transnational watercourses, it stressed the need for mutual understanding, mutual benefit, acting in good faith, and respect for international law. It also underscored the areas of collective benefit that could be expected from the dam, among them clean and sustainable energy generation, economic development, cross-border cooperation and regional integration.”

However, according to United States Information Service Egypt in 2023, “The ongoing measures taken by Ethiopia to complete the 4th filling of its controversial Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile violate the Declaration of Principles signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in 2015, the Foreign Ministry said. These unilateral measures pay no due regard to the interests and water security of the two downstream countries, namely Egypt and Sudan, which [are] enshrined in international law.” According to English Ahram, interventions after the announcement of the fourth filing occurred under the supervision of the African Union, and eventually the U.N. Security Council. Abiy agreed to halt the fourth filing and met with Al-Sisi to renegotiate. However, negotiations halted in July 2023—two months after the civil war began in Sudan. After the war began, it became very difficult for Sudanese officials to focus on the G.E.R.D. project and its possible complications for Sudan’s population. 

With the completion, there needs to be an agreement in place. Unfortunately, Ethiopia has taken advantage of the Sudan War to finish their project. The best-case scenario for developing an agreement is the end of the conflict in Sudan. However, this is improbable. The African Union must step in and oversee an agreement between, at least, Egypt and Ethiopia. Additionally, Ethiopia should be required to have external oversight on this dam to ensure no water supply is being withheld. Egypt needs to appeal to the African Union for this agreement. The best option is to legally limit Ethiopia before they have any chance or reason to store or withhold water supply. If there is no agreement forged, the populations of Egypt and Sudan, especially the rural populations, will suffer.