With countries around the world developing an ‘exit strategy’ from lockdown, experts worry about the potential of resurgence. Denmark has sent its children back to school. A number of U.S. states have put in place a ‘partial re-opening.’ South Africa, which had imposed one of the strictest lockdowns worldwide, has also begun a ‘partial re-opening,’ allowing some industries to re-open factories. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa had a simple justification for the move, offering: “our people need to eat.”
Around the world, leaders are making similar judgements to strike the balance between protecting public health and protecting the economy. The privilege to ‘stay home and social distance’ has illuminated wealth disparities between countries, cities and communities: many millions do not have the housing conditions to do so. Food insecurity is an even more pressing concern. The World Food Programme recently reported that the Covid-19 pandemic will double the number of people suffering from acute hunger to 265 million. This is where lack of food “threatens lives, livelihoods or both.” World Food Programme Senior Economist Arif Husain described these millions as “hanging by a thread.” But what is the risk in re-opening, and sending millions back to work?
The Spanish Flu, a pandemic often used in comparison with Coronavirus, first appeared in the March of 1918. Owing to movements of soldiers, it spread en masse through Europe, yet it did not seem to be particularly deadly. From the records available, the death toll was similar to a common seasonal flu. It was the second wave that was much more catastrophic, believed to be caused by a mutated strain. In the August, unknowing soldiers carried the virus from England to a number of port cities around the world, including Brest in France, Boston in the U.S. and Freetown in West Africa (now, Sierra Leone). The death toll between September and December of 1918 was cataclysmic, claiming between 20 and 50 million lives. It is still unclear what the overall death toll was, however researchers put it between 50 and 100 million.
Although all pandemics kill differently, they do seem to follow the pattern of waves. The 2009 H1N1 influenza in the northern hemisphere had a wave in April and flared again in the Autumn. When SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) infected 8,000 people in 2003, it killed nearly 800: a death toll of nearly 10 percent. Scientists still are unsure why there no second appeared wave after the disease disappeared in July 2003.
The history of pandemics does not give epidemiologists much optimism. As Justin Lessler of Johns Hopkins University put it in March, “Epidemics are like fires. When fuel is plentiful, they rage uncontrollably, and when it is scarce, they smoulder slowly.” At the moment, few lives on earth are not impacted by the coronavirus. But because of the high scale of disruption, no politician wants to be the one to lockdown twice. However, this may become a promise that is un-kept. As a Harvard scientist recently predicted, “a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”
At the moment, the virus appears concentrated in North America and Europe. As of 2 May, the African continent had less than 30,000, although this is likely an undercount owing to lack of testing. For many parts in the world, it is yet to be seen how, and when the virus will re-surge. Hokkaido Province in Northern Japan was the first to declare a State of Emergency in February because of the virus. This ended on 19 March. However, after a little less than a month of re-opening, they have declared another one. Epidemiologists are watching with scepticism as the first countries edge open their economies, loosening restrictions posed on citizens. Frustratingly, we can do little except hope for the best, and wait for the consequences.
