On 4 June, the European Commission unveiled a new strategy to extend the measures contained in the 2022 Temporary Protection Directive for Ukrainian refugees until March 2027 and to support sustainable reintegration and reconstruction initiatives within Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war more than three years ago, temporary protection measures have been extended annually. However, the nature and duration of the conflict have prompted the Commission to launch a more comprehensive program aimed at either facilitating the voluntary return of refugees to Ukraine or supporting their transition to a permanent legal status in host countries.

The European Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration, Magnus Brunner, has underlined in a press conference that the extension will provide “legal certainty for E.U. member states, reassurance for Ukrainians, and avoid burdening national asylum systems.” In the same press conference, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov stated, “We need our citizens to rebuild the economy. Ukraine will need at least 4 million more people in the labor market in order to double its G.D.P. within the ten years following the end of the war.”

While the temporary protection granted by the European Union has provided refuge to over 4.25 million displaced Ukrainians, many of them now require long-term residence permits, student visas, or regular migration status to replace the ongoing temporary protection scheme. Already a year ago, an investigation by Le Monde highlighted how, in some of the main host countries such as Norway and Germany, the large influx of refugees was putting a strain on public infrastructure. Moreover, temporary residence permits have often pushed many refugees to accept jobs that do not match their qualifications such as precarious, part-time positions. The lack of a clear pathway toward permanent legal status only worsens these conditions.

Against this backdrop, the strategy devised by the European Commission acknowledges both the possibility that, at the end of the war, many Ukrainian refugees may wish to remain in Europe and the eventuality that others may choose to return to Ukraine. To accommodate these needs, the program includes the implementation of voluntary return schemes and exploratory visits to help refugees assess the conditions for returning home. Additionally, the proposal provides for logistical and informational support through the establishment of so-called “Unity Hubs,” physical information centres in cities such as Berlin and Prague, which would offer guidance on rights in host countries, support for those planning to stay or return, and connections to educational, healthcare, and employment services.

The initiatives put forward by the European Commission are undoubtedly necessary and beneficial for Ukrainian migrants. However, the long-term success of both reintegration efforts and Ukraine’s reconstruction will ultimately depend on the broader health of the country’s economy. In this regard, the recent expiration of the Autonomous Trade Measures, a temporary framework that had suspended all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the E.U., represents a significant setback in this matter. Ukrainian officials have warned that the reintroduction of tariffs could result in over €3 billion in annual losses in export revenues. This is particularly alarming given that agriculture, despite the ongoing war, remains one of the few functioning sectors in the country and a primary source of foreign earnings.

The future of reintegration is therefore inextricably linked to the E.U.’s trade policy: without a stable and supportive economic environment, millions of displaced Ukrainians will lack both the means and the motivation to return. For this reason, the European Union must pursue a coordinated strategy that aligns reintegration initiatives with economic cooperation, including sustained market access, ensuring a truly coherent and durable path to reconstruction.