The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected the people and economy of Pacific Island Nations. They are countries that are isolated and suffer from deficits in medical infrastructure and would struggle greatly to contain the contagious coronavirus. In acknowledging these deficits, Pacific Island countries were among the first countries in the world to close their borders to international flights. This has been an incredibly successful preventative measure that has seen 10 Pacific Island countries be COVID-19 free.

Recently the Lowy Institute released the second annual update of the Pacific Aid Map and hosted a panel of experts to discuss the state of the Pacific during the global pandemic. The resulting conversation outlined the significant social and economic impacts that are expected to outlive the immediate threat of the coronavirus.

The price of this success has been paid in the rapid shrinkage of their economic opportunities. In 2018 the Asian Development Bank published a report that describes tourism to Pacific Island countries as “a key driver of economic growth in the coming decade.” The report highlights how managing tourism resources will be integral to generating the income and core infrastructure to raise the standard of living for Pacific Islanders. Closures caused by COVID-19 has stalled this growing sector and cause further developmental delays until the creation and distribution of vaccines. Another practice wounded by COVID-19 is the remittances sent to the Pacific Islands from overseas workers. Global trends of unemployment doubly affect such workers as they can no longer provide a steady income for their families. Even government programs like the Australian Seasonal Workers Scheme have seen stoppages and only recent rapid policy changes have helped these workers to remain employed and living in Australia.

Broadly the economic shocks have been severe, with unemployment levels skyrocketing across the Pacific Islands and projected gross GDP contractions of up to 20%. Fiji has seen one-third of its workforce become unemployed. In Vanuatu, it’s projected that two out of five formal sector jobs will be lost. There are plans to enlarge the proposed Australian travel bubble to include the South Pacific to ameliorate these costs, however, the risk of COVID-19 transmission is rightfully delaying these plans.

During the Lowy Institute Panel, the Pacific Community Deputy Director-General Audrey Aumua talked about how the lockdowns have caused meaningful losses to social and educational programs across the board in the Pacific. This is in part a result due to the poor digital infrastructure in place in the South Pacific, making the pivot to remote modes of delivery particularly difficult. Consequently, there is a high risk of many benefits gained from social programs, like children’s school attendance, atrophy, and decline.

Jonathan Pryke and Alexandre Dayant, Lowy Institute Pacific experts, highlight how the Pacific is a region that is ultimately reliant on the aid it receives from foreign donors. In 2017 Australia sought to improve its mechanism for deploying aid into the Pacific via the creation of the Pacific Step-Up program, and this infrastructure has proved immensely useful during this crisis. However, one policy from one country is not enough to support this diverse region that has a variety of systemic issues.

Chinese aid in the Pacific has been conspicuously absent, despite their large investments in the recent past. Pacific Islanders have demonstrated incredible resilience during these unprecedented times, but they cannot go it alone. Without effective international coordination and cooperation to help our extended Pacific family, the variety of social issues that Pacific Islanders face will return with new severity and global disparity will continue to grow.