On December 7th, Syrian rebels led by an Islamist group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.) seized control of Damascus, forcing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to seek asylum in Moscow. The advance began two weeks ago when Syrian rebels emerged from a years-long stalemate in a swift offensive, taking several major cities including Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and now Damascus with minimal resistance. With dwindling support from Iran and Russia, Assad lost his grip over the country, and rebel groups took advantage of the opportunity to topple one of the most violent regimes of the 21st century. The fall of Damascus marks the end of more than 50 years in power for the Assad dynasty and concludes a 14-year civil war that has left an estimated 500,000 people dead and an astonishing 7 million as refugees.
Bashar Al-Assad assumed the presidency in 2000, succeeding his father Hafez al-Assad as dictator of Syria. B.B.C. Middle East correspondent Hugo Bachega captures Assad’s legacy in his assertion that “[he] will forever be remembered as the man who violently repressed peaceful protests” (B.B.C.). Indeed, since the civil war began in 2011, Assad’s relentless use of force against civilians, with substantial support from Russia and Iran, has allowed him to maintain power until now.
International leaders must coordinate to ensure Syria’s new government prioritizes the protection of civilians. The Washington Post describes the Western government’s fear of “catastrophic success” if Islamist groups like H.T.S. – or worse, I.S.I.S. – take control of post-conflict Syria. In a victory speech, H.T.S. leader Mohammad al-Julani attempted to distance himself from past associations with al-Qaeda, reminding his fellow Syrians that they are entering “a new history” (Al Jazeera). However, the U.S. and U.N. still recognize H.T.S. as a terrorist organization.
The Syrian Civil War was initiated by the 2011 Arab Spring, when protests quickly led to the ousting of an unpopular leader in Tunisia. This inspired protests in other countries in the Middle East – namely Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen – motivated by a range of issues from economic downturn to human rights violations. While Tunisia’s initial success created what observers saw as potential for democratization, the events that transpired in the other countries involved in the Arab Spring were met with various levels of state resistance.
In Syria’s case, President Assad responded to the peaceful protests of the Arab Spring with an intense crackdown, plunging the country into a brutal civil war that lasted for over a decade. Assad relied on allies to crush anyone who posed a threat to his government, and from 2016 to 2024 he retained control over the majority of the country. With weakening international support, however, Assad’s forces were unable to withstand the most recent advancements of the H.T.S. rebel fighters, bringing a sudden end to the long rule of the Assad family.
The legacy of the Assad regime is one of despair, and Syrian civilians will undoubtedly feel the relief of liberation from one of the harshest dictatorships in history. Nonetheless, the group that will retain power in Syria inherits political chaos. Years of conflict have left infrastructure decimated, the economy in ruins, and the population in diaspora. In addition, broader regional instability threatens Syria’s recovery. The post-conflict government must also manage the prospect of terrorist groups gaining power and further destabilizing Syria.
While international actors and those who will take power must pay attention to the immediate influences that threaten Syria, it is also important to reflect on the significance of this moment for the status of human rights in the Middle East. Amid years of human rights violations by deeply entrenched autocrats across the region, the success of the rebel groups who deposed the Assad regime is remarkable. However, the international community must not forget what is at stake in the coming weeks as Syria navigates the struggles common to governments emerging out of periods of conflict.
